Simulation of the Spatial Pattern of Land Use Change in the City of Gachsaran Using Cellular Automata Model

Simulation of land-use change is very useful for governmental plans and policies. A number of models including system models, Markov chains, the CLUES-S and the SLEUTH have been developed for the simulation of land-use change. Among them, cellular automata (CA) modeling is widely applied to simulate complicated dynamic systems. In this regard, information on land use and also land cover and possibilities for their optimal use is essential for the selection, planning and implementation of land use schemes to meet the increasing demands for basic human needs and welfare.Therefore, this study was conducted to forecasting and modeling of urban development of city of Gachsaran using a CA Model for 2044.

In this descriptive study, the land use mapping, a predominantly cloud-free image of Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS, 1972), Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM, 1986), Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+, 1999), and Operational Land Imager (OLI, 2015) were used to the modeling of land-use changes of the study area between the periods 1972 to 2015, and also to the simulation of land-use changes of city of Gachsaran in 2044.

Based on the results obtained, the increasing growth of urban use over time, particularly in the northern part of the city, and the decline in natural and ecological land use, especially agricultural land were observed. Also, the results clearly suggest that the development process of the city of Gachsaran during the recent years did not follow a proper pattern and, especially the unbalanced growth could be observed in the western part of the city. On the other hand, according to the forecasting of model output, in 2044 about 70% of the extent of the study area, will be dedicated to urban use.

In general, it can be admitted that the CA model has a high ability in simulating the urban development process and can effectively be used to study the urban dynamic, especially in rapidly growing cities.