Drawing scenarios for the ideas of Pan-Kurdism in relation to the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran

In order to predict the security situation of the country in the coming years and design appropriate security scenarios, it is absolutely necessary to pay attention to the ethnic situation and ethnic challenges. The purpose of this study is to identify the key variables and drivers affecting the future of pan-Kurdish challenges in relation to the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran and finally to discover and draw possible scenarios related to it. This research is applied in terms of nature and purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of type of method and exploratory due to its futurism. The statistical population of the study is in the form of a panel of experts according to the futures research approach. The key variables of this research were identified by cross-matrix method using Mick Mac software. Wizard scenario software was used to identify possible scenarios. The results of this study showed seven variables: the involvement of foreign factors, the activities of Kurdish-language satellite networks, the development of virtual networks, underdevelopment, the replacement of Persian with native language, regional competition and the effects of Iraqi Kurdistan as key variables. It is effective. Finally, the scenario of continuing the current trend by reaching a relatively critical situation was identified as the most likely and strongest scenario among the thousands of scenarios analyzed in the Wizard scenario software.