Strategic Foresight of Sense of Security in Tehran Metropolitan

Sense of security is one of the most important features in an urban place. Concept of sense of urban security has been always at the center of attentions in understanding urban studies. The principle objective of this research is to examine possible scenarios of scense of urban security and propose the desired ones for the future of Tehran Metropolitan by strategic foresight model. This study first conducted the survey based on literature review to identify major factors on the sense of urban security in Tehran metropolitan. Researchers show that eight main criteria are important in assessment of sense of urban security in Tehran metropolitan. Mic-Mac and Scenario Wizard software were used for analysis. Based on the point of view of 30 experts, four factors belong to the cause group and four factors are the effect group. The results showed that four factors including 1) that faith, spirituality ، values, and religious beliefs 2) justice, equality and non-discrimination 3) material welfare (sustainable income and employment) and far from poverty, unemployment and expensiveness and physical sustainability were identified as a strategic driving forces. Finally, 6 scenarios were selected with the highest consistency based on favorable, static, and critical conditions. Scenario analysis does not depict a favorable future of the Scense of Security in Tehran Metropolitan on the vision of 1404.