Explain the prediction of drug trafficking in the railway fleet using scenario planning method

Today, futures research approaches and methods, such as scenario planning, can take police planners and decision-makers beyond traditional planning methods and prepare them in the face of drug crimes and potential future events. This study aims to explain the prevention of drug trafficking in the railway fleet using scenario planning method.

The present study is a developmental research in terms of purpose. This research is one of the "descriptive-survey" methods according to its objectives; in this research, the model of predicting social crises has been used. The statistical population of this study included 120 deputies, managers and employees of the Anti-Narcotics Police, the NAJA Prevention Police, the Presidential Anti-Narcotics Headquarters, and the heads of the country's railway police, who were selected in full.

The findings showed that the component "change the method and technique of drug trafficking in the railway fleet"; "Geography of drug crime"; "The type of drugs and the activity of gangs in the railway fleet" and "time factors in the continuation of drug trafficking" have been the most important predictive indicators in the form of 12 scenarios.

Future research using scenario planning method can be used as a new management tool for planning in the police force .To help managers and decision makers change their attitudes toward imaginary realities and to bring their attitudes as close as possible to existing or emerging realities.