Simulation of Women’s Fertility Behavior in Tehran Province Using Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Reduction of fertility to ‌below‑replacement level in Iran has led policymakers to provide facilities to increase fertility, but careful assessment of the impacts of childbearing incentives have remained unattended. Using data from the 2017 Iran Fertility Transition Survey (IFTS) including 1500 households in Tehran province, this paper simulates the complex low-fertility behavior applying agent-based modeling approach in AnyLogic software environment. Various scenarios such as economic scenarios, providing government facilities, increasing the number of marriages, reducing the average age of marriage as well as a combined scenario were considered. The simulation results showed a declining trend in fertility in Tehran province for the next ten years based on which total fertility rate in Tehran will decline from 1.4 in 2019 to 1.06 in 2029. However, a 20-percent increase in the number of marriages for women leads to fertility increase from 1.06 in the base year to 1.26 in 2029. Using a combined scenario, it was shown that reduction in the average age of marriage along with improvement of childbearing conditions increase the total fertility rate to 1.6 in 2029. The policy implication of this study indicates that pronatalist programs should be developed considering the impact of incentives on couples’ reproductive behavious in order to facilitate achieving the goals of population policies while realizing their ideal and intended fertility.