Water resources management in Food-Energy-Water Nexus: The application of system dynamics in Iran's Maharlu Lake Basin

In recent years, the humane society has been faced with fundamental threats of production, supply and distribution of Water, Energy and Food. The geographical location of the country in a semi-arid area, has made the country more vulnerable, specifically in water resources. The extend and complexity of interrelationships amongst water resources and other domains, has made the management and policy-making tasks, extremely challenging. The danger of sub sectional policy making without taking into consideration the consequences of those policies on other related areas, calls for an integrated and holistic view. The Food-Energy-Water nexus (FEW) approach has gained a momentum in the recent years. System dynamics methodology as an effective tool that is capable of analyzing complex and nonlinear relations among variety of variables can be utilized. The current research tries to develop a conceptual model, taking into consideration, the interrelations in the FEW nexus. In order to operationalize the conceptual model, a system dynamics model has been developed and run. The results suggest that, if the current situation were to be continued, the stress on water resources in the area would reach a critical point to extent of the destabilization of a normal life, in the near future. Several scenarios of management intervention have been developed and tested in the research model. The outcome indicates that the reduction in agricultural water usage as well as development and enhancement of waste water treating systems, combined, would have the most effect on reducing the decreasing rate of the water resources.