The Future of Small Border Towns Affected by the Process of Urban Shrinkage (Case Study: Arkavaz City)

Today, in many developing and even developed countries, some border cities towards the central towns and provinces are losing their population and economic, social, and cultural capital, which is the phenomenon of urban shrinkage.

The study is practical in terms of its purpose and qualitative-quantitative in terms of its method. The required data and information have been collected by library methods (identification of variables and drivers) and the Delphi survey. The study is practical in terms of its purpose and qualitative-quantitative in terms of its method. Mic Mac software and Morphol scenario have been used to analyze the data.

The findings show that the drivers of poverty and unemployment, lack of government facilities, lack of attention to border cities, and migration have the highest impact on the process of the urban contraction in Arkavaz.

According to the results, the process of the urban shrinkage of Arkavaz will not have unfavorable future because many scenarios are in unfavorable situations (8 Scenarios). According to these situations, the grounds for the migration of its population, human, and financial capital are available. Catastrophic scenarios are ahead of the significant drivers in various economic, social, natural, and political dimensions. Therefore, with the current trend, the urban shrinkage situation is inevitable. This situation may change with planning, changing strategy, and the impact of unpredictable macro variables. Of course, regarding infrastructure development and management, intermediate to favorable scenarios have been presented that can affect other drivers.