Spatial Analysis of the Effect of Trade Liberalization on the Unemployment Rate in the Provinces of Iran

Aim and Introduction :

Unemployment is a major issue in developing countries. The high rate of unemployment means that the country does not use the workforce effectively. Unemployment is the worst economic problem due to its negative impact on the individual and society and the speed of its spread in the world. Therefore, solving the problem of unemployment is one of the most important goals of institutions. Trade liberalization is one of the effective factors in reducing the unemployment rate.Globalization is an inevitable process with different economic, social and political aspects. Meanwhile, trade liberalization is considered as the main symbol of globalization and its most important driving force. Therefore, considering the high unemployment rate in most of the provinces of Iran, with the increase in commercial liberalization in line with the economic growth and development, it can be seen in the sectors that have a relative advantage. Increasing national security and political and economic stability provides the necessary infrastructure to attract foreign investors. Therefore, by increasing trade liberalization, it is possible to overcome many economic and political problems in the provinces of Iran, and its effects will spill over to the provinces with the high unemployment rate and will increase economic growth, will increase gross domestic product and finally will reduce the unemployment rate in the provinces of the country.

In spatial econometrics, spatial effects are added to the performance of periodic or complex regression models (panels). Therefore, in spatial econometrics, sample information has a spatial component. When data has a spatial component, two issues can be discussed: (1) Spatial dependence, and (2) Spatial heterogeneity. Before estimating spatial panel models, we need to perform spatial dependence tests and to check the existence of autocorrelation between disturbance terms. The existence of spatial coherence between observations and spatial autocorrelation between disturbance terms indicates the need to use spatial panel models. To do this, Moran, Jerry C, and Jetis Ord J tests are used. The Moran test examines the assumption of spatial autocorrelation between disturbance terms. In spatial econometric models, to model spatial reactions, it is necessary to select the numerical value of spatial directions. For this purpose, we have two sources of assumptions: (1) Position on the coordinate plane, which is expressed by latitude and longitude, so that the distance of any point in the location, or distance of any observation located at any point relative to fixed or central points or observations can be calculated. (2) The source of spatial information is neighborhood and neighborhood, which expresses the relative location in the space of an observed peripheral unit, compared to other such scales.

In this study, the impact of trade liberalization on the unemployment rate in the provinces of Iran over the period 2006-2019 was investigated with a spatial econometric approach. First, to check the spatial dependence, the spatial dependence of the provinces was confirmed by the Moran and Jerry C test, and based on the significance of the above tests, the research model was estimated in the spatial panel model. According to the results, trade liberalization shows positive effects on reducing the unemployment rate of these provinces, and this result is compatible with the results of other studies including Yanıkkaya (2008), Li et al (Li & et al., 2020), Adou (2021), Amini and Muradzad (2014) and Samimi et al (2014). The variables of gross domestic product and construction credits have positive and significant effects on reducing the unemployment rate. However, the inflation rate and the wage rate have negative and significant effects on reducing the unemployment rate of the provinces of Iran.

Since according to the research literature, part of the unemployment rate is reduced through various channels such as trade liberalization, attracting foreign investment and export, considering that macroeconomic decisions are made in the center of the country, it is suggested It is possible, taking into account the increase in regional and provincial decision powers, it is possible to achieve favorable economic effects in the direction of improving macro-economic variables, policy and regional planning.The cooperation between the central government and the provincial centers increases the security of the region (country). As a result, high security encourages foreign investment, increases the stability of the economic policy, facilitates the laws and removes obstacles. National security increases the degree of commercial openness, increases production and reduces the unemployment rate.To achieve a balanced and convergent regional development and to resolve the spatial and financial disparities and heterogeneities of the country's provinces, it is suggested that the allocation of budget resources to the less developed provinces should be increased. And the share of allocation of budget resources of different provinces should be converged. As a result, the provinces of the country, especially the less developed provinces should be able to flourish as much as possible from the point of view of economic growth and unemployment rate reduction.The lack of economic infrastructure in rural areas, especially in the industrial sector, increases the rate of emigration and the overflow of labor to urban areas. Therefore, the improvement of economic infrastructure and the increase of trade liberalization policies lead to the improvement of technology and innovation in the less developed regions, and ultimately lead to a decrease in the unemployment rate in the province level.