An Analysis of Key Propellants Affecting Livestock Return in Forests with a Futuristic Approach (Study in Golestan Province)

Today, livestock outflows from the forests of the north of the country have created environmental and social challenges and problems that have caused concern to natural resource policy makers.  The re-emergence of livestock and ranchers illegally in the forests for various reasons has created disputes and tensions with conservation systems. In this regard, the present study was conducted to analyze the key drivers affecting the return of livestock in the forests of Golestan province. The sample population in the study consisted of 20 ranchers returning to the forest and were purposefully selected. After collecting information, using the cross-effects technique and using MicMac software, 27 indices extracted from the Delphi method were analyzed. The results of the dispersion of indicators in the axis of impact and effectiveness, indicate the instability of the livestock exit system from the forests of the province and its organization, based on which five variables were identified. Findings obtained from the effect-matrix direct dependence and dispersion of indicators showed that the lack of accurate implementation of the provisions of the plan in the forest, lack of support from government agencies in the area of ​​housing, lack of alternative job opportunities and diversification of income sources, lack of pasture Natural resources for livestock and the high cost of complementary inputs, non-timely payment of salaries by people subject to the plan by the government, various procedures and instructions contrary to the plan, lack of proper planning in housing and livestock farms, as the most important effective indicators and Strategies were evaluated in the return of livestock to forest areas. According to the obtained results, the compilation and preparation of a 10-year transformation document in order to organize the settled forest households is the most important proposal with a forward-looking approach to the subject under study.