Scenario planing of factors affecting financial distress using fuzzy system dynamics technique

Financial distress of banks and public and private companies is a serious issue for the economies of the countries. The individual and social costs of financial distress have raised the problem of financial distress for many managers, banks, investors, policy-makers and auditors as a major issue. Due to the development of companies, increasing economic activity, intensifying competition and cycles of inflation and recession in recent decades, the number of financially distress companies and the importance of helplessness is increasing. The issue of bankruptcy and financial distress has always been a matter of concern. Therefore, it is very important to study the causes of financial distress and evaluate financial distress with the help of common models.In this research, financial distress is modeled using the system dynamics method. For this purpose, the factors affecting financial distress were first identified after studying the research literature and using the opinion of experts, the most important of these factors were selected. Then, using the identified components, the causal diagram was developed and based on the causal diagram, the flow diagram was developed. Scenarios were proposed using the flow model.