مجله بررسی مسائل اقتصاد ایران
سال نهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 18، پاییز و زمستان 1401)

The problem of identifying the roots and causes of underdevelopment of countries is a complex issue for which the extensive research has been done to explain it. The contribution of the present paper is that by using the method of direct content analysis in order to improve institutional analysis, it shows that the main element in the underdevelopment analysis is not "institutional quality" but "institutional consistency", the function of institutions appears in an institutional consistency. Thus, using such an approach, it is shown that one of the most important roots of underdevelopment and ultimately the decline and collapse of the Pahlavi's regime has been institutional inconsistency. The special focus of this study is on theorizing the new concept of "institutional inconsistency" and using it for institutional analysis of Iran's economy with emphasis on the inconsistency between traditional authoritarian political institutions and modern legal institutions such as parliament and civil law, between modern economic institutions, such as industry and tribal social structure in Iran, also in the light of the concept of institutional consistency for Iran, the key concepts of institutional analysis were identified.

This paper seeks to determine the optimal pension policy according to the aging of the Iran’s population, by calculating the optimal replacement rate and simulating transition to this rate. For this purpose, an OverLapping Generations Model, with five main parts of population, household, production, government and pension system, was calibrated. Demographic data related to the next hundred years were used based on the United Nations report and the relevant variables were predicted. In first step, the optimal value of replacement rate for the year 1430 was calculated. The results show that the replacement rate will be optimal in the range of 15 percent. Also, the results show that by adjusting the replacement rate to the optimal rate, the amount of contribution rate will also decrease significantly. In the next step It was assumed that the government adjust the replacement rate, and of course contribution rate, of the pension system to the optimal amount during a forty-five-year plan through a fiscal policy that will be implemented in 1400. The results showed that with transferring to the optimal policy, the capital stock, labor supply, production and welfare will increase.

Sustainability is basically an exchange challenge that shows environment is under pressure to improve the human’s quality of well-being. Some of the introduced indicators, such as ecological footprint, environmental sustainability, environmental performance and human development, have received more attention. However, the lack of a comprehensive index that considers both economic and environmental criteria to measure sustainability can be seen. This subject seems to have been considered in the ecological intensity of well-being. Dietz. Rosa and York first introduced the index in 2012, defining it as the per capita pressure imposed on the environment for each unit of human well-being to measure sustainable development. For the first time in Iran, this study calculates the value of this index for the years 1996 to 2017 for Iran and predicts it for the years 2018 to 2022 using ARMA models and R software. The results show that despite the increase in the ecological footprint over the past three decades, the value of the EIWB has been almost halved, which indicates the improvement of life expectancy during this period.

The present study aims to investigate the impact of quality of financial information on stock mispricing. For this purpose, a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model was used to calculate stock mispricing. Then, a panel data regression model was applied to test the relationship between financial information quality and stock mispricing. The statistical population of the research consists of all companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange, among which 114 companies that were active during 2008-2019 were selected as sample. Based on the results, the quality of financial information has a significant negative effect on stock mispricing. In addition, the share of floating stocks and the ratio of book value to company market value have negative and significant effects on stock mispricing, while institutional ownership have a positive and significant effect on that. The results also indicate that the financial leverage, liquidity, price-to-earnings ratio and company size have no significant effect on stock mispricing. Thus, providing high quality information by companies can influence the decisions and behavior of investors in the market and reduce the possibility of mispricing. Furthermore, by reducing management benefits and increasing information transparency, the possibility of occurring price bubble in stock market can be reduced.

The aim of the present paper is to analyze the political economy trend in Post-Revolutionary Iran based on five key indices. The results reveals Iranian economy have not been success in development of the strong private sector. The size of government & its intervention have not been decreasing. The composite index of " growth & economic welfare" has decreasing trend after the third development program, also the correlation coefficient between the economic growth and the value added of oil sector have been over 70 percent. By development of Infrastructures and health and educational possibilities, the "economic justice" Status have been improving in the early nineties decade but by intensifying the imposed sanctions & increasing the inflation rate over 24 percent during the nineties decade, the justice indicators have been falling. Furthermore, in the foreign trade sector, there is no obvious trend & determined policies. Therefore, the paper's findings reveal there is no the comprehensive theory and an indigenous governance model in the Iran's economy. In order to transition from conflicts and fundamental differences in macroeconomic policies making, that could be proposed to consensus on the general policies, particularly by emphasizing on the resistive economy.

Developing national policies and monitoring water management regulations must be socially desirable, environmentally sustainable, and economically appropriate for both government and industry. In the present study, for the first time, using data from the period 2002 to 2015 and the Generalized Fluid (GMM) method, in addition to examining the Kuznets hypothesis by considering water consumption in the provinces of Iran, the effect of value-added variables of industry and trade (As economic factors), urbanization, government size (as social factors), annual rainfall and temperature (as ecological factors) on industrial water consumption are discussed. The results indicate that there is no significant relationship between the amount of trade, value added of the industrial sector and its square with the water consumption of the industrial sector and the Kuznets hypothesis in the industrial sector is not confirmed. The results also show a significant inverse effect of government size and temperature and a positive and significant effect of urbanization and rainfall on water consumption in industry. Therefore, it is necessary for the industries of each province to be equipped with water quota management technologies in accordance with their local natural, social and economic conditions and water conservation should be encouraged.

Financial distress of banks and public and private companies is a serious issue for the economies of the countries. The individual and social costs of financial distress have raised the problem of financial distress for many managers, banks, investors, policy-makers and auditors as a major issue. Due to the development of companies, increasing economic activity, intensifying competition and cycles of inflation and recession in recent decades, the number of financially distress companies and the importance of helplessness is increasing. The issue of bankruptcy and financial distress has always been a matter of concern. Therefore, it is very important to study the causes of financial distress and evaluate financial distress with the help of common models.In this research, financial distress is modeled using the system dynamics method. For this purpose, the factors affecting financial distress were first identified after studying the research literature and using the opinion of experts, the most important of these factors were selected. Then, using the identified components, the causal diagram was developed and based on the causal diagram, the flow diagram was developed. Scenarios were proposed using the flow model.

One of the most important factors influencing the exchange rate volatility is currency substitution due to the dollarization of the economy. Currency substitution is a common phenomenon in developing countries. The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effect of currency substitution on exchange rate volatility in Iran. In this study, the quarterly data of Iran's economy during the period 1990-2021has been used by applying the Bound test method and autoregressive with distributive Lag and Markov switching methods. Based on the results, Model MSIH(2)-AR(2) was chosen as the optimal model. In addition, in measuring the amount of money, due to the important role of defining the amount of money from monetary aggregates, simple sum and Divisia are used. The results show that the Divisia monetary aggregate is more appropriate than the simple sum in the expression of asymmetries. Currency substitution in the low-volatility regime had a negative effect on exchange rate volatility, but in the high-volatility regime, the effect of currency substitution was significantly positive. It illustrates the asymmetry effect of currency substitution on exchange rate volatility in various exchange rate regimes and confirms the asymmetric effect of currency substitution on exchange rate volatility.

Gasoline pricing policy has always been a challenging issue and it has wide economic, political and social dimensions in Iran. In this study, first, the current policy of gasoline pricing has been examined based on analytical and descriptive approach. Then, new pricing scenario is proposed to reduce the harm caused by the current policy. The results show that the current gasoline pricing policy is separate from the economic situation and leads to over-consumption of gasoline, increased polluting emissions, more unfair distribution of subsidies, and increased incentives to smuggle fuel. To address the current price disadvantages and the social consequences of price reforms, a consumption tax policy is recommended as a suggested solution. Under the proposed policy, the price of gasoline is completely affected by the quantity consumed and the more fuel consumed is associated with higher costs rather than larger subsidies. In this policy, the incentive to smuggle fuel, which is associated with high fuel consumption, is greatly reduced because higher fuel consumption is provided at regional prices. Furthermore, consumers with low consumption (less than 80 liters per month) earn more well-being than the current policy and the proposed scenario is expected to be socially acceptable to people.

Nowadays, income distribution and ways to adjust inequality in income distribution have been considered by many policymakers. The adverse social and economic consequences of increasing income inequality in society are not hidden from anyone, so it has led governments to prioritize improving income distribution. Inequality is defined as the difference between individuals in society in accessing economic resources, and various factors play a role in the unequal distribution of income. Government fiscal policies can certainly be effective in reducing inequality and income redistribution. In most developed countries, government distribution policies are driven by tax policies. In addition to being one of the most important sources of government revenue, tax is one of the most effective tools in improving revenue distribution. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of inheritance tax on income distribution during the period of winter 2006 to autumn 2018. According to the results of this study, inheritance tax and economic growth rate in the long term can reduce the Gini coefficient and improve income distribution. Moreover, rising government spending, rising inflation, rising population growth, and long-term unemployment can increase the Gini coefficient and make income distribution more unfair.

Based on the theoretical literature, there are different and contradictory approaches about the effect of shadow economy on per capita income. So, according to the importance of this issue for proper policy-making, this study examines the effect of the shadow economy on per capita income in the period 2005 to 2017 using the PARDL method in two groups of developing and developed countries in the short and long term. According to the results in the short run, the shadow economy has a significant and negative impact on per capita income in both set of countries. In the long term, the effects of this variable on per capita income in developed countries is insignificant, but in the developing countries have been significant, and its effect is greater than short term. Thus, developed countries have the ability to control the negative effects of the shadow economy on per capita income in the long run, while for developing countries, the negative effects have increased in the long run.

Undoubtedly the ability to innovate and successful product marketing is one of the most important factors in the global competitiveness of economies over the next decade. In other words, innovative activities are a key factor in economic progress and prosperity, as well as a potential factor in meeting global challenges in the economic and social spheres. Therefore, identifying and strengthening the grounds for creating innovation must be studied that have been addressed in this research. The subject of this study is to investigate the effect of shadow economy and corruption on innovation in Iran in the period (2017-1997) using the approach of least partial equations in PLS software. The results of this paper show the positive relationship between the shadow economy and innovation and the positive effect of corruption on innovation. This result is not unexpected, the results of some studies have shown that economic agents are able to take advantage of the bureaucratic structure. Other results of this study have been the negative impact of government size, and democracy on innovation in the period under study in this study. In addition, the results in this article examined the causes and effects of corruption.