Simulating the performance of Total allowable catch (TAC) projection models to fishery management of Banana shrimp (Penaeus merguiensis) stock in data-limited situation (Case study: Hormozgan province)

Many marine fishery stocks are deprived of continuous research survey due to cost and facilities limitations, which are known as poor-data. Thus, management methods have also been developed through simulation in which shrimp stocks were managed under future simulation and modeling conditions in the face of data limitation. The aim of this study was to simulate the storage of banana shrimp in Hormozgan province using total allowable catch (TAC) models. Data were collected through shrimp fishing vessels in shrimp fishery grounds of Hormozgan in2018. Future simulation for 50-years was done by closed loop with 5000 replications, of which 200 lines of the simulation process were randomly selected. According to the results, the ITe model with 76.9% had the highest probability of yield in the MSY range among the models. In simulating the trend of biomass index (B/BMSY) it was found that ITe, DDe, LstepCE and EtargetLopt models with probability percentages of 76.7%, 54.7%, 38.6% and 13.3% from the highest to the lowest, respectively. The 50-year forecast trend showed that in the DDe model, the mortality rate (F/FMSY) decreased sharply, and the results of this model had the highest range of uncertainty, ranging from 0 to 2.5. The results of the present study can provide valuable information about the stock of banana shrimp in Hormozgan province in the future to decision makers, managers and researchers.