Developing Policy Scenarios of Sustainable Urban Development through Scenario-based Planning (Case Study: Mahshahr Port City)

Achieving sustainable urban development depends on a successful principled approach to the management of human and natural resources. By explaining the future of each of the key drivers, scenario-based planning is considered as one of the key ways to achieve and succeed in sustainable urban development. It prepares the managers and officials for the upcoming challenges. This study aimed to develop sustainable development scenarios for Mahshahr port city in accordance with scenario planning. This current research was based on a futurology approach, analytical methods, and exploratory science to guide its purpose and nature. Documentary and library studies have been conducted to collect the required data and information, as well as using questionnaires and Delphi techniques. The MicMac and ScenarioWizard software were used to analyze the collected data. According to the preliminary findings of the research, out of 35 major factors affecting the sustainable development of Mahshahr port city, eight major variables were found, such as (Domestic tourism development (V4), urban development plans (V19), efficient local management (V21), efficient macro management (V23), education (V24), communication network (V28), security (V30), and geographic location of Mahshahr port (V33) all contribute to the sustainable development of Mahshahr port city.) Mahshahr port city is effectively developed through sustainable means. As a result of the circumstances ahead of these eight key drivers, 26 scenarios have been developed for the future of sustainable urban development in Mahshahr, which can be placed in three groups (optimal scenarios, static scenarios, and critical scenarios). According to the findings of the study, the port city of Mahshahr has unique natural and human potentials that provide an opportunity for its sustainable urban development. It is however important to note that different drivers play different roles in helping to provide sustainable public infrastructure of this city in the future, and the type of planning and how it is implemented can result in success in sustainable urban development and achieve the most desirable scenario, or on the contrary, this path can face many challenges and the most critical scenario possible can happen.