Analyzing the Future of Salafi, Wahhabi and Takfiri Political Islam in Saudi Arabia

Political Islam is a phenomenon which influences the global politics, security and culture. Whatever the fate of the political Islam is, it will affect politics, security and culture in the international arena, especially in the Islamic countries of West Asia and North Africa, including Saudi Arabia. Considering this issue, the aim of the present research is to identify the events, trends and drivers affecting Salafi-Wahhabi Islam and draw a perspective of its possible futures. The research seeks to find an answer to the question how the future of political Islam will be in Saudi Arabia in the horizon of 2030. With the use of the methods of trend analysis, two-stage Delphi and expert panel, the most important trends governing Salafi-Wahhabi political Islam in Saudi Arabia were identified and the key driving forces were determined. The findings of the research shows that the four drivers of "social and identity crises", "intensification of the dependence of the political environment and openness of the social cultural environment", "relationship with America", and "the end of internal conflicts in favor of Muhammad bin Salman", are among the highest consensus and importance among experts and they determine the future of Salafi-Wahhabi political Islam in Saudi Arabia. It seems that in the future, with the divergence between the House of Saud and the House of Sheikhs, there will be a need for a diverse economy, including religious and non-religious tourism and advances in communication technologies, the concentration of Sharia in the political sphere of Saudi Arabia, the reduction, the increase in the demand for democracy, the increase and the status of Salafi Islam, Wahhabi and Takfiri will be marginalized further.