نشریه مطالعات سیاسی جهان اسلام
پیاپی 43 (پاییز 1401)

Political Islam is a phenomenon which influences the global politics, security and culture. Whatever the fate of the political Islam is, it will affect politics, security and culture in the international arena, especially in the Islamic countries of West Asia and North Africa, including Saudi Arabia. Considering this issue, the aim of the present research is to identify the events, trends and drivers affecting Salafi-Wahhabi Islam and draw a perspective of its possible futures. The research seeks to find an answer to the question how the future of political Islam will be in Saudi Arabia in the horizon of 2030. With the use of the methods of trend analysis, two-stage Delphi and expert panel, the most important trends governing Salafi-Wahhabi political Islam in Saudi Arabia were identified and the key driving forces were determined. The findings of the research shows that the four drivers of "social and identity crises", "intensification of the dependence of the political environment and openness of the social cultural environment", "relationship with America", and "the end of internal conflicts in favor of Muhammad bin Salman", are among the highest consensus and importance among experts and they determine the future of Salafi-Wahhabi political Islam in Saudi Arabia. It seems that in the future, with the divergence between the House of Saud and the House of Sheikhs, there will be a need for a diverse economy, including religious and non-religious tourism and advances in communication technologies, the concentration of Sharia in the political sphere of Saudi Arabia, the reduction, the increase in the demand for democracy, the increase and the status of Salafi Islam, Wahhabi and Takfiri will be marginalized further.

Despite the relatively balanced relationship between Turkey and Israel in the past, but with the dominance of ideologically oriented parties with opposing beliefs, such as the Justice and Development Party in Turkey and parties such as Likud in Israel, this relationship has been maintained and even strengthened at times, contrary to expectations. ; This research has been carried out with the aim of investigating the mentioned contradiction and revealing the hidden points of this relationship. This article, using the descriptive-analytical method and applying the theory of chaos, which proposes a specific and predictable order beyond the apparent differences between the governments, aims to answer the question why, despite the superiority of tension-causing factors, the main structure of Turkish relations and Israel, contrary to the announced policies, has been stable and strategic in practice? The findings of the research show that despite tension-causing rhetoric and disputes such as the issue of Palestine, Kurds, human rights, etc., in practice, relations between Turkey and Israel have maintained their relative stability, and the aforementioned disputes and rhetoric are merely a camouflage for the practical policies of the parties such issues as economic, security, etc. The central ideology, being a supporter of human rights, etc., is only a cover from Turkey and Israel to achieve bilateral goals and bigger goals such as the Ottomanization of Turkey and becoming one of the regional powers on the part of Israel, and contrary to the declared policies, it is a fixed order. And it has been stable in their practical relations.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the geopolitical differences in the Persian Gulf region. Today, the Persian Gulf is known as one of the most important geopolitical areas in the world. The geo-economic importance of the region due to the existence of energy resources, good communication position and geopolitical structure of the region has led to historical and civilizational differences between the countries of the region as well as differences between trans-regional countries in relations with countries. The method of this research is "applied" in terms of purpose and "descriptive-analytical" in terms of nature. Using John Coliner's theory, which focuses on geopolitical differences, this study seeks to answer the question of what factors and components lead to geopolitical differences in the Persian Gulf region? The findings of the study indicate geopolitical differences in the Persian Gulf region in the dimensions of territorial disputes (claims and disputes over borders, land and maritime territories), strategic disputes (disputes between countries over strategic places and points such as Arvand River, Abu Musa and the Strait of Hormuz), economic disputes (disputes over energy resources and common offshore fields), environmental disputes (disputes over the marine environment and water scarcity in the region) and cultural disputes (historical-civilizational disputes and Ethnicity) which has led to competition and geopolitical tensions in the relations of the countries of the region and the involvement of supra-regional powers in the Persian Gulf region. The results of the study indicate the geopolitical differences between the countries of the Persian Gulf region include five dimensions: "territorial, economic, strategic, cultural and environmental". The most important consequences of these differences are "failure to form a comprehensive regional organization", "lack of collective security approach", "First and Second Persian Gulf Wars", "geopolitical rivalries" and "proxy wars" are present.

Five years after the cut of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, two sides entered into talks in 2021 to de-escalate their relations and during the negotiations carried out with the mediation of China in March 2023, they agreed to restore diplomatic relations. The purpose of this article is to examine the prolongation of detent negotiations and the difficulties of the two countries in maintaining and continuing diplomatic relations. The main question of the research is, why despite the de-escalation of relations between the two sides in 1990, this round of negotiations has been followed slowly? To answer the main question, the analytical-explanatory method and the approach of applying the theory with the case have been used. Research findings show that according to Christopher Hill, it is not possible to reach an agreement until the two sides change their psychological environment. Because what is happening in the operational environment is a reflection of the two sides' perception about changing the balance of power and interest in the region. Iran and Saudi Arabia need to make adjustments to their media statements in the first step. Then, in the second step when they receive new information, instead of simplicity, consistency, relying on cognitive maps, and emotional aspects and interpreting it in the past style, try to leave misperceptions, misconceptions, and misunderstandings. They should not be trapped up in the negative psychological war of media, and routine events, and raise walls of distrust with hasty comments.

This article aims to identify the consequences and effects of regional security of identityism in the Middle East by examining the identity characteristics of the Middle East. The main question of the article is "what are the characteristics of Middle Eastern identityism and what effects has it left on regional security?"

In this article, the framework of identitarianism theory as a paradigm of new regional studies was used as a research method, as well as Cohen's breaking belt approach, Thorn's new paradigm, and Melouchi's cultural rotation were also used.

The finding of the article is that "identityism in the Middle East has been formed based on religious, cultural, historical and identity differentiation and has led to low-intensity conflict and proxy wars."

In the identity conflicts of the Middle East, all kinds of official and unofficial actors are involved in political and strategic conflicts, and identity groups are trying to reproduce a new form of justice and create the ground for the realization of a new method in political relations.

Since its establishment in 1947, Pakistan has faced the issue of Baloch ethnicity as a problem with political, security, economic and regional dimensions. Unfortunately, the geographical and linguistic continuity has also had an impact on the situation of the Baloch people in Iran, hence the sociological analysis of this issue is important. The leading research seeks to answer the question, what are the dimensions of the issue of ethnicity in Pakistan's Balochistan from the point of view of micro and macro sociology? In order to answer this question, an attempt has been made to answer this question by using the theoretical framework taken from Ara Randall Collins. Document analysis method is used in this article. It seems that various components such as past colonial relations, the instrumental use of identities in the colonial period, geopolitical element, the behavior of the chiefs and elders of Baloch tribes, the functioning of the modern government and the image of defeats and great and decisive victories on the mentality of the Baloch ethnicity in the formation of the problem Qoumi has been influential in Baluchistan, Pakistan. Paying attention to issues related to macro and micro sociology simultaneously is one of the strengths of Collins' theoretical framework. The theoretical framework derived from Ara Collins is able to explain well the origins of the formation, continuation and even the future of the Baloch ethnicity issue in Balochistan, Pakistan. This research is one of the qualitative researches that intends to study a case study in depth.