Differential Fertility in Iran: Evidence from the Iran's Multiple Indicators Demographic and Health Survey

In recent years, low fertility has become an epidemic and widespread phenomenon in different regions of the country, and many of provinces and counties are experiencing fertility below the replacement level. However, despite fertility convergence, it seems that the rate and pattern of fertility are not the same among different socio-demographic subgroups. In this regards, this article investigates the differential fertility patterns and levels among different social and demographic subgroups using the birth history method and data from the Iran's Multiple Indicators Demographic and Health Survey (2015). The results showed that the total fertility rate in the period of 2013-2015 was 2.02 children per woman and also the phenomenon of childbearing postponing to older ages (25-34 years) is evident. Also, the results show noticeable and significant differences in fertility among different socio-demographic subgroups (residential, educational, occupational, economic quintiles, etc.). Poisson regression results showed that the variables of women's age, education and employment, cultural consumption, economic status, urban-rural residence and the level of development of the province of residence have significantly effects on women's fertility and have explained about 42 percent of fertility variance. Therefore, the new population policy should pay attention to differential fertility among different social subgroups and follow targeted policies in this regard.