Estimation of the Economic Consequences of a Port Shutdown on National Output; The Case Study of Shahid Rajaee Port

According to the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA), about 70 percent of imports and 30 percent of the country’s exports of goods (excluding crude oil and petroleum products) come from ports. Obviously, any disruption to the activities in main ports (due to strikes, natural disasters, technical incidents, and terrorist operations) overwhelms the national economies and can have implications for the production of economic sectors. In spite of the importance of this issue, it has been neglected by the Iranian analysts. Shahid Rajaee port has a share of 60 percent of all commercial maritime business in Iran and its shutdown may have unexpected consequences on the national economies. The main aim of this paper is to measure the economic consequences of 90-day disruption of the activities of this port on reduction of the national output. We have used exports and imports data of Shahid Rajaee port published by IRICA and the national input-output table for 1390. The findings indicate that the total output reduction resulting from the 90-day shutdown of Shahid Rajaee port on the national economy is 133 thousand billion Rials which accounts for 1.31 percent of national output. Reducing import dependency and improving the economic resilience can lead to reducing undesired economic consequences of a port shutdown.