Assessing and monitoring of land use changes in the Zard River Drainage Basin using remote sensing and Markov chain model

Studying land use changes in the past and predicting these changes for the future is one of the important principles of planning for urban development, management of various hazards, optimal use of natural resources and curbing unprincipled changes in the future. Monitoring and optimal management of natural resources requires timely and correct information. In this regard, land use maps / land cover is one of the most important sources of information in various managements. One of the efficient methods for predicting land cover changes and land use is the Markov chain model. In this study, changes in land cover over the past years and the possibility of predicting it in the future using the Markov chain model in the Zard River basin have been investigated. To achieve this goal, the required satellite images were first prepared using ETM + (2000) ETM +, (2006); ETM + (2012) and OLI-TIRS (2018) sensors; maps were prepared after making corrections on satellite images, and evaluating the accuracy of classifications using kappa coefficient. Then the land use map for 2025 and 2050 is predicted. The results show that if the speed of land use change is the same as in previous years. In 2025, the use of built-up areas will increase to 1089.54 hectares, the use of green space and gardens will decrease to 4/4/2012, the use of wasteland to 85279.59 hectares will be reduce, arable land use will be increased to 1154/52 hectares and surface water use will be increased to 666/54. . In 2050, the use of built-up areas will increase to 1671/98 hectares, the use of green space and gardens will decrease to 192.62 hectares, the use of barren land will decrease to 8438.69 hectares, the use of arable land will increase to 1243.73 hectares. Surface water use will increase to 895.59.