Compilation of transportation-oriented development scenarios in Birjand city with a scenario writing approach

The rapid development of urbanization followed by the expansion of the industry and the supply of automobiles has caused uneven urban growth, air pollution, high volume of traffic and accidents, and increased travel time, and the lack of use of appropriate transportation methods has led to the aggravation of these factors. The purpose of this article is to develop transportation-oriented development scenarios in the city of Birjand. The current research is based on the exploratory-applied research method and to achieve the future of Birjand city by using Scenario Wizard software, by forming a 64x 64matrix of mutual effects, a total of 4strong scenarios, 77believable scenarios and 487scenarios Poorly obtained. The results of the research show that there are 3 scenarios with a very high probability of occurrence in the conditions facing the future of transportation in Birjand city. In the first scenario, there are favorable conditions based on the allocation of funds and credits, management of travel demand, low emission of pollutants, compliance with environmental standards, low impact, international sanctions, a coherent and purposeful vision in the body of urban management and the development and acceptance of new technologies. Transportation-oriented development in Birjand city is the most favorable scenario.