Water Poverty Index and Its Influential Factors in Iran

Population growth, followed by rising water and food consumption, as well as disruptions such as the disparity of population distribution patterns with the distribution of time and place of water, have caused water-security access to Iran in crisis. 

This paper is the first to accurately calculate the Poverty Index for Iran over the period from 1989 to 2015. In this paper, a new model called the Water Multiplier Evaluation System with the Disaster Theory approach is used to calculate the water poverty index. For the first time using the censored regression econometric model, the effect of economic factors affecting the water poverty index during the period of 1989-2015 has been evaluated.

The results of calculating the water poverty index indicate the upward trend of this indicator and its components. The results of estimating the coefficients of the sensed regression model indicate that population growth, GDP, human development index and added value of the agricultural sector have worsened the water poverty index in Iran

In other words, the current and past trends of the human development index, GDP growth, population growth, increased agricultural production, insecurity and rising water poverty in Iran are inevitable.