Formulating Future Desirable Scenarios for Public Sport in Iran

The social phenomenon of public sports is influenced by various factors and constant uncertainties, but foresight will provide a reliable and optimal road map for it. The purpose of this research was to formulate the desired future scenarios for public sports in Iran.

The current study, with its exploratory purpose, followed a mixed-methods approach. The participants were purposefully selected and included 20, 10, 8, and 8 people according to the stages of the research. A semi-structured interview, questionnaire, and matrix were used to collect data. For data analysis, first, the effective factors were extracted by the hidden content analysis method and confirmed by experts using the Delphi method, and then, the strategic factors were identified with the participation of the strategic council and the mutual effects analysis. Finally, the research scenarios were extracted through the balanced mutual influence analysis method.

 The results indicate the formulation of three scenarios for realizing the desired future. The first scenario includes the components of financial resource allocation, comprehensive participation of the stratum of society, unified and integrated management, and the media's attention to Iran's public sports. The second scenario includes the components of financial resource allocation; the social status of the family; and specialization, highlighting, and modeling of athletes. The third or the final scenario includes the components of financial resource allocation, comprehensive participation of the stratum of society, specialization, and the media's attention to Iran's public sports.

Scenarios provide the possibility for the policymakers and high managers of Iran’s sports to implement and establish a relationship between the priority strategies for the constituent components of the scenario, by institutionalizing public sports, to implement its rich functions in the society and ultimately, lead to the construction of the desirable future and national success.