Analysis and evaluation of the environmental effects of urban land use changes in the metropolitan area of Tehran

Urban growth, especially in the unfavorable form of scattered urban development, has been condemned due to its negative effects on the environment, human health, and social and economic issues. For example, agricultural land, forests, pastures, and open spaces have been significantly reduced. Ecosystems and animal habitats have been disrupted with an alarming tone, and the quality of air and water, followed by human health and quality of life, have decreased. Therefore, this research aims to evaluate the environmental effects of urban land use changes in Tehran metropolis.

Idrisi Selva, ARC GIS 10.4, and Google Earth software were applied, and the CA-Markov model was exerted to predict the city's future expansion.

The results of data analysis show that the change of natural land use to built land use has been expanding so that these lands have increased from 9% in 1974 to 54% in 2019, and according to the forecast in 2032, built-up land reaches 62% of the total area, which shows the severity of the environmental crisis, also barren land use with 71% and vegetation cover with 28% had the largest decrease towards built-up land use. 

The most significant percentage of changes are in the useful lands of Tehran city (water lands and vegetation lands), and other lands with slower negative growth than these two land uses are witnessing change, which shows the severity of environmental crises in the future.

Innovation: 

From the most important innovative and practical aspects, it can be said that this study evaluates demographic changes, urban development, and environmental assessments, which can distinguish the results of this study from other studies conducted in this field.