فصلنامه مطالعات جغرافیایی مناطق خشک
پیاپی 51 (بهار 1402)

The current research aims to evaluate the social effects and consequences of development action in the southeast of Iran. This action is related to construction of a polymetal mine in South Taftan. 

Methodologically, this research should also be an analytical and explanatory study based on a qualitative approach. Accordingly, this approach was followed by the method of field study and techniques including observation, interview, analysis of beneficiaries for collecting data, and content analysis technique applied for this purpose.

Most involved beneficiaries declared some issues such as alignment of action with regional sustainable development plans, unemployment adjustment and providing constant employment opportunities, achieving sustainable security, reverse migration, and benefitting other public and service providers in the region are among the positive outcomes of this project. On the other side, issues like changing the traditional livelihood patterns, damage to gardens or farms and homes in the mine area, threats to the health of residents, air and environmental pollution, loss of natural landscape of villages and environmental threats, and in particular the intensification of local and intergroup tensions are among the consequences which especially natives and their representatives feel likely to occur following launching the project. In the meantime, it should be emphasized that the ignorance and ambiguity of the local community towards this project is one of the main areas of intensification of concerns in the mentioned community. 

The construction of the mine causes fears and hopes. In order to manage these fears and hopes, it is necessary to pay attention to the mental and semantic framework of the natives.

Innovation: 

The present research is one of the few studies in the social impact assessment of mining construction in Persian.

Water resource planning in different world countries is based on the potential surface resource availability. Land use changes, especially in watersheds that include cities and population centers, strongly affect the quantity of water. This study aims to determine land use/land cover changes in the Samian watershed, Ardabil. Also, investigating the relationship between land use changes and the amount of surface water in this watershed was explored.

In this study, ENVI software obtained land use for four time periods from 1993 to 2017. In order to investigate the quantitative changes of water, 5 hydrometric stations and 32 rain gauge stations within the watershed were selected, and the runoff coefficient of these stations was obtained based on the recorded data in river gauge stations. In the next step, ANOVA and Tukey test were exerted to determine the significance of changes in the mean runoff coefficient.

In the studied years, rangelands have decreased considerably by 9.75%. Also, irrigated agriculture had the highest increase, with 8.45%. Residential areas had increased in the study period by 1.42% compared to the first period. Rainfed agriculture has also increased by 3.29% in the study area.

In all studied hydrometric stations except Nir station, the changes in runoff coefficient were significant. In Samian, Aladizgheh, Atashghah, and Ghilande stations, the changes in runoff coefficient have decreased, which means a decrease in river discharge during the research period.

Innovation: 

The results can be used in the quantitative analysis of the relationship between land use change and surface runoff coefficient changes. Also, based on the reduction of natural lands, it is possible to predict the increasing intensity of runoff and flooding. In addition, land use planning and management and knowledge of the amount, intensity, and spatial changes of runoff production potential are prerequisites for planning runoff control.

This research aims to evaluate the effects of some hydro-physical properties of the ephemeral streams on flood flow estimation. Flood is a phenomenon that damages resources and has always been important to hydrology experts. 

For estimating flood discharge with specific return periods, geometric features of catchment based on rainfall-runoff models are widely applied, which has also been exerted in the present research. In this study, some catchment independent variables related to physiographic features, including drainage area, slope, length of streams, compactness factor, Gravylyus factor, elongation factor, form factor, and land uses, were calculated and extracted at 21 sub-basins. Then, the discharge and specific discharge values with return periods 2, 5, 10, and 25 years were calculated. Also, D50 and D90 were obtained using a sieve gradation (granulometry) graph of geological formations. Then, their relationship with the independent variables of the catchment was assessed by applying multivariate regressions. Then the suitable models were obtained for each discharge return period using SPSS software.

The results showed the variables' variability and importance in determining discharge with different return periods and the necessity of using an appropriate model for estimating runoff resulting from the study basins. 

Based on the findings of this research, it can be said that it is possible to prepare simple and variable models for the estimation of floods with different return periods using simple physiographic parameters. Of course, due to the diversity of climate, Geology, etc., this research's results will differ from the findings in other areas; therefore, it is necessary to perform the same investigations in areas with different characteristics to increase confidence and generalization.

Innovation: 

The most important innovation of this research is the presentation of new models that have not been evaluated and presented in our country so far and can be used to estimate flow and sediment discharge in watersheds with no hydrometric data.

Urban growth, especially in the unfavorable form of scattered urban development, has been condemned due to its negative effects on the environment, human health, and social and economic issues. For example, agricultural land, forests, pastures, and open spaces have been significantly reduced. Ecosystems and animal habitats have been disrupted with an alarming tone, and the quality of air and water, followed by human health and quality of life, have decreased. Therefore, this research aims to evaluate the environmental effects of urban land use changes in Tehran metropolis.

Idrisi Selva, ARC GIS 10.4, and Google Earth software were applied, and the CA-Markov model was exerted to predict the city's future expansion.

The results of data analysis show that the change of natural land use to built land use has been expanding so that these lands have increased from 9% in 1974 to 54% in 2019, and according to the forecast in 2032, built-up land reaches 62% of the total area, which shows the severity of the environmental crisis, also barren land use with 71% and vegetation cover with 28% had the largest decrease towards built-up land use. 

The most significant percentage of changes are in the useful lands of Tehran city (water lands and vegetation lands), and other lands with slower negative growth than these two land uses are witnessing change, which shows the severity of environmental crises in the future.

Innovation: 

From the most important innovative and practical aspects, it can be said that this study evaluates demographic changes, urban development, and environmental assessments, which can distinguish the results of this study from other studies conducted in this field.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the positive and negative consequences of the project construction of the Sabzevar antenna railway to Mashhad-Tehran railway on the surrounding environment using the Pastakia matrix and by breaking down the project and its environment into constituent factors (acceptable environmental factor - project micro-activity) has taken place.

The present research is analytical and applied in terms of method (quantitative and qualitative) and type, respectively. By implementing this environmental impact assessment method, a suitable tool is obtained to ensure the proper implementation of the project. This evaluation method can be considered a method for determining, predicting, and interpreting the railway project's environmental effects on the region's environment and the ecological health of its systems.

The findings show that the effect of the project's activities on physical and chemical factors, in the final summary, only in the case of the effect of drilling on the shape of the earth, had negative effects and changes. Biological-ecological factors have created The most negative effects on vegetation and agricultural and garden lands. The socio-cultural environment showed positive effects and changes. In examining the economic and technical factors of implementing the railway construction project on the environment, the only factor with negative effects is the cost of change of use.

The results of this study showed that the railway construction project has a total of 10 negative effects and changes and 5 positive effects and changes on different environments. Also, according to these results, it is recommended to comply with environmental requirements.

Innovation: 

Evaluation and implementation of the railway project with the Rapid Matrix method can determine the appropriateness or inappropriateness of the project at a lower cost and in a shorter time.

The main purpose of this research was to model the temperature data of Tabriz synoptic station with the help of an integrated auto-correlated moving statistical model in time coverage of 1951-2020.

First, pre-processing was done on the studied data; in the next step, in order to analyze a time series and build a suitable model were exerted three Box-Cox methods, the first-order difference method and the least square method for stationery to decide on the best model based on the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation diagrams, the minimum Akaic information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Next, in order to ensure the appropriateness of the best-selected model were also applied  normal probability diagrams, residuZ2`2als against time, autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and evaluation criteria (MAE), (MSE), (RMSE) and (NRMSE).

While time series models are a suitable method for modeling climatic parameters, by examining the efficiency of the Box-Cox, first-order differential, and least squares stationery methods for the temperature data of Tabriz, it was determined that the first-order differential method is the best stationery method for the annual temperature data of Tabriz synoptic station due to having the lowest slope of the fitting line and the complete elimination of autocorrelation between temperature values. 

The results of this research showed that the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) Con model is the most suitable model for temperature forecasting of the coming years. Therefore, the average annual temperature of Tabriz synoptic station will increase in the next 18 years.

Innovation: 

In this research, the effectiveness of different stabilization methods was simultaneously evaluated for Tabriz Synoptic station in order to remove the trend, so that by evaluating the performance of different data stabilization methods and different models of the ARIMA family, the appropriate model for temperature forecasting can be determined and a clearer picture of the temperature conditions in the future can be obtained and its results can be exrted in related planning.

This paper aims to identify the effective parameters in the location of parks using the DPSIR model and to analyze the shortcomings and inconsistencies of green spaces in Mashhad.

The research is descriptive-analytical, and the study method is DPSIR pattern. The method of collecting data is based on documentary and fieldwork. After assessing the current situation and identifying deficiencies using the DPSIR model, driving forces, pressures, status, effect, and response are identified, and ten criteria for suitable location are extracted. SDSS and GIS have been exerted to analyze the data.

The findings show that only 22% of the residents are close to the parks. Additionally, neighboring parks are incompatible with (cultural and educational) land uses, and only 36% are nearby. In terms of the new perspective, green space is a place not only for ecological efficiency but also a place for social returns. So, its real per capita is 4.17 square meters, which is very different from the per capita the responsible institutions give(14.16 m2).

The results show that the driving forces include population density, unplanned development of the city, change of usage, and weak urban planning laws, and the pressures on the urban environment include the increase in building density, changes in lifestyles, informal settlements, and the existence of more than 25 million pilgrims annually. Among the effects of this deficiency, we can mention the destruction of ecological quality, the reduction of the aesthetics of neighborhoods and the increase of air pollution, the reduction of the sense of social interactions, and the reduction of social vitality.

Innovation: 

The innovative aspect of this paper is integrating the DPSIR model and the principles of the minimum distance allocation model. Therefore, this research goes one step further. After evaluating the environmental condition of Mashhad city through the DPSIR model and providing answers, it presents them as solutions to solve problems in the form of GIS maps of proposed parks in different areas.