Economic analysis of dairy cattle production system with emphasis on risk in livestock of Cities of Ardabil province

The most appropriate way to maximize profitability through breeding is to use economic coefficients of traits along with genetic evaluation. The purpose of this study was to estimate the economic coefficients of production, reproductive, performance and risk traits in farms in Ardabil, Khalkhal, Nir and Germi counties based on the collected data and market conditions in 1400, using a bio-economic model. The economic coefficient of the traits was calculated using MATLAB software with a unit change in the mean of the desired trait if other traits remain constant in their mean. The studied traits included milk production, milk fat, calving interval, production lifespan, daily weight gain before and after weaning, birth weight, adult body weight, survival rate before and after weaning. The economic coefficients for Ardabil city are 15501/17, 556278, -78829/41, 18325/85, 607695/31, 1984509/5, 47849/36, -34521/69, 676066/77, 3174287/11 Rials, respectively. Khalkhal city 12154/83, 555009/65, -156539/61, 17409/81, 1058103/07, 3480949/26, 83976/43, -43347/37, 3814230/34, 6371210/65 Rials, for Nir city 15281/13, 490212/7,-128232/97, 64858/19, 898225/59,2932385/16,70725/61,-49044/99,2503282/56 5036932/8 Rials and for Germi city 27118/6, 448803/94, -130308/28, 15699/58,908827/54,2990291/35,72192/17,-54554/8,3024142/99,5006904/32 Rials per cow per year were calculated in all production systems The highest income was related to milk sales and the lowest was related to elimination heifers. It was also found that the cost of nutrition has the largest share of the total variable costs. Among non-nutritional costs, manpower costs were the most important factor in increasing costs. The results of the sensitivity test showed that economic coefficients are the most sensitive to changes in feed and live weight prices and the least sensitive to fluctuations in milk and fat prices. The results also showed that livestock diseases and lack of vaccines and drugs are the most important risk factors in a livestock unit and problems with milk transportation and changes in livestock insurance conditions are the least important risk factors, so the most important risks In livestock, there are risks related to production and manpower. Also, the most important risks threatening natural factors include heat and cold stress and drought, respectively. The economic review of the production system causes a better identification of the position of the units and increases the level of awareness of the policy makers and planners of the livestock sector as well as the investors of these types of activities in order to make fundamental decisions or solve the existing problems.