Effects of US and China oil and gas production and consumption on Iran's total output using scenario statistics by stepwise regression modeling

due to the political and economic measures taken in the Persian Gulf region by the United States and China, there has always been a suspicion that the economic shocks that have occurred in Iran, always dependent on such It has been one of the problems to examine the role of China and the United States, the method of combining qualitative and quantitative models has been used, the matrix of mutual effects of influential and permeable variables in Iran's oil and gas production and consumption is determined, and then the future scenarios of oil and gas production and consumption are obtained by modeling. The forecasting of oil and gas production and consumption movement includes scenarios and they are applied as a shock to the Input-output table. the effect of these scenarios is -5.4 to +5.8 percent on Iran's total output.