Moral Hazards of the Impact of Crude Oil News on the Effective Forecast of Crude Oil Prices

One of the most important economic goals of countries is to create the necessary conditions to promote continuous and stable economic growth. Therefore, predicting oil prices in line with the practical incentives for economic growth will not be possible except with the growing link of economic ethics. The purpose of this study is the moral hazards of the impact of crude oil news on the effective forecast of crude oil prices.               

The method of the present research is applied and of deep learning type. The crude oil news indexes, Google Trends and crude oil prices in the world have been selected as a statistical population that the years 2021-2011 were selected as a research sample. The data measurement tools were investment.com, the weekly price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil and the Google Trends search engine. Convolutional neural network method was used for the test.

The fit of the research model, which included a main hypothesis, was confirmed. Therefore, the complementary link between news headlines and Google Trends is very useful in accurately predicting crude oil prices and can lead to moral hazards in pricing.

It has been estimated that all variables are level or with a stable difference, and experimental results indicate that text-based forecasting and Internet-based big data methods perform better than other techniques and show that they can be moral hazards.