Spatial Analysis of Expansion of Farmland in the Protected Area of Kavir using Ecosystem Management Approach and its forecast in the coming years

This study was conducted to investigate the expansion of Farmland in the protected area of Kavir. In order to achieve this approach, an area of ​​33933 ha was selected in the northern part of the region, where Farmlands are only expanded in this part. Land use maps were prepared for 1986, 1994, 2002, 2013 and 2020 using the images of Landsat's TM and OLI sensors and SVM algorithm by coding in Google Earth Engine. LUCC were calculated by the LCM model. The land use map for 2054 was predicted by CA Markov. Finally, the habitat changes were evaluated by landscape metrics. The results showed that the validation coefficient of SVM was more than 0.98. The land uses were divided into three classes: Farmlands, desert scrublands, and shrub pastures. The area of ​​Farmland increased from 434.5 ha in 1986 to 4,243 ha in 2020, which has increased by 3,809 ha, of which 3,067 ha were related to the conversion of shrublands to agriculture and 822 ha were related to the conversion of shrub pastures to agriculture. Farmland has been extended towards the center of the district and along the Golu River. The most changes and increase in the cultivated area were related to the period from 2002 to 2013 (2104 ha). The forecast results for the year 2054 also indicate that the Farmlands will expand downstream along the Golu River and compared to 2020, about 2787 hectares of Farmlands will grow, of which about 2010 hectares are related to bush conversion. Shrublands to agriculture and 725 ha of it will be related to the conversion of shrub pastures to agriculture. The number and weighted profile of the shape of patches of shrubland and shrub meadows increases, the average area, contiguity and size of the patches decreases, which indicates destruction and decomposition.