Identification and Analysis of Drivers Effective on the Sustainable Development of Kermanshah Metropolis with a Scenario-Based Approach

Nowadays, sustainable development has been proposed by experts as an important strategy to improve the quality of life of citizens and the sustainability of resources due to the increase in the population of cities and the increase in pressure on resources. Meanwhile, the metropolis of Kermanshah has many social, economic, natural, and environmental issues and problems. Therefore, according to these issues, the aim of the study is to identify the most important driving forces on the sustainable development of Kermanshah with a future research approach. The purpose of the study is applied and the method is based on structure analysis. The required data and information have been collected by library methods and the Delphi method (use of elite opinions). The statistical sample of the research consists of 50 experts, managers, and relevant researchers. The key drivers were identified using MICMAC software. According to the output obtained from the software, the saturation index obtained for the variables with two times data rotations is 91.80 percent, which confirms the strong influence of the variables on each other and shows the efficiency of the information obtained from the opinions of the elites. The results show that the drivers empowering the urban infrastructure in the field of smart city and electronic city, government credits, tourism, and border location have the highest net effect on the sustainable development of Kermanshah. Also, out of 2500 valid output scenarios, 5 scenarios with the highest inertia (high validity, repeatability, and probability of occurrence) have been presented as final scenarios. Finally, according to the obtained results, suggestions were made in the direction of moving the intermediate scenarios toward the favorable and sustainable development of the Kermanshah metropolis based on the upcoming scenarios.