Identifying the key drivers affecting the future development of religious tourism in Mehran city

Religious tourism can bring about major changes in economical, social, and cultural conditions of local communities. Regarded as the greatest social mobility, this industry involves numerous cultural, economical, and formational consequences, constantly requiring its development to be effective in both the past and present. As the most suitable border passage for Arbaeen pilgrimage, the greatest Religious event in the world with millions of pilgrims participating in it, Mehran city allows 70% of holy shrines pilgrims to pass through its borders, proving itself as a city which has a high potential to achieve the regional sustainable future development brought about by religious tourism. Identifying the vital factors and main drivers affecting the future development of religious tourism in Mehran city, is in line with administrating and designing the possible scenarios in the future, policy-making framework, and flexible planning in synchronization with the region's conditions. This research, in terms of practical purpose and descriptive-analytic nature, is based on the desk studies and environmental observations. The data required for this research is selected, categorized, and formulated by utilizing the available studies regarding the future development of religious tourism, and five indexes: economical, social-cultural, management-planning, infrastructural-formational, environmental-geographical factors; then, using the delphi method for managers and elites, the cross-sectional effects matrix was formulated. In the next level, the matrix was analyzed by utilizing softwares such as Mic Mac and scenario wizard. After inspecting the rate and method by which these factors affect each other, and also future development status of the religious tourism, 13 key factors (fund-raising, integrated management, sanctions, weather conditions, tours, removing legal barriers, private sector, economical development, regulations, environmental factors, geopolitical situation, visa, and network connections) that had the most important roles in Mehran city's future development of religious tourism, were selected; then, using the capabilities presented by the scenario wizard 2, 2 strong scenarios, 9999 weak scenarios, and 4 believable scenarios were extracted.