نشریه چشم انداز شهرهای آینده
سال چهارم شماره 3 (پیاپی 15، پاییز 1402)

Housing is one of the fundamental human needs. Accordingly to Maslov’s hierarchy of needs, housing as a physiological and basic need, set the stage for other needs for safety and survival, social relation, self-esteem and self-actualizution. Fulfilling a wide range of needs with housing, means that housing market can influence the behavior of individuals as well as the entire society. Given that, the housing market is linked to the entire economy of a country, it is therefore considered a very important market. On the other hand, various studies show that the exchange rate is a key variable that failure to pay attention to proper management can create problems for the economy of any country in various dimensions. So that Iran’s economy is no exception. Accordingly, the objective of this research is studing the effect of exchange rate volatility on house price in Iran from first quarter of 2006 to fourth quarter of 2019. The method of collecting research data is the library research method and to study the research topic, first the exchange rate volatility is estimated using the exponential GARCH Model and then the effect of exchange rate volatility on house price is investigated using the quantile regression method. The result indicate that, exchange rate volatility has a significant negative impact on house price and interaction effect of exchange rate volatility and inflation on house price is significant positive.

With the beginning of the industrial age, the pace of urbanization has grown rapidly and is still moving towards the future. The future of human lies in urbanization, therefore, the necessity of foresight and creating a desirable living environment in the future cities is among the requirements of the present day’s planning. The biophilic approach is one of the naturalistic approaches that have entered into the area of architecture and urban planning since the early 21st century. Taking into account the problems that lie ahead, the increased elderly population and environmental changes are among the challenges in the future city. The present research is aimed at improving the quality of the outdoor space of the elderly living environment using the biophilic approach and urbanism in future city. This study was conducted by looking at the future city and the challenges facing it and trend analysis method. Data collection and analysis was done with a combined method (quantitative and qualitative) and using spss24 software and Pearson's correlation coefficient and one-sample t-test tests.; and data analysis was conducted using the SPSS24 software, Pearson's correlation coefficient test and one-sample t-test. The results indicated that the majority of the relationships between the elements of the biophilic approach with the components of the quality of the environment have a meaningful relationship and the highest number of correlations between the elements of the biophilic approach with the semantic component of the quality of the outdoor environment. According to the findings, biophilic activity has the highest effect (4.25) and the nature of space has the lowest effect (2.82). Among the 44 examined items, the green space, plants and water element (4.53) has the highest average value and not being afraid of dense trees (2.55) has the lowest average value. Furthermore, the results suggested that a more desirable quality of environment leads in the elderly’s interest, enhancing their biophilic activities such as sports, walking and gardening and also increasing their social interactions in the outdoor space of residential complexes. The results of this study can be used in planning and design of residential complexes in the future city.

The most important challenge of the world's municipalities in the third millennium is in the issue of earning income and providing financial resources. Although the main difference between the local governments of the world and the municipalities of Iran is related to the type of their financial resources, in the sense that in most of the world's cities, "state grants" constitute one of the major resources of the municipalities (local governments), but in Iran, the share of this source in the budget The municipality of the big cities of the country is less than 5%, and in Tehran, during the last one or two years, the share of this type of municipal income has reached zero. The aim of the current research is to present the financing model of Tehran municipality and its impact on urban sustainability. The research method of this research is qualitative and through interviews with 31 experts in the field of urban management, financing of the urban sector, and prominent university professors, using targeted sampling, up to the stage of theoretical exploration. Based on the findings of the research and analysis, according to the theme analysis, 105 basic themes, 19 organized themes and 2 consequences, urban social behavior and sustainable development of all urban elements were presented. Finally, "urban social health" and "sustainable development of all urban elements" were identified as the main outcomes and "sustainable financing". Also, the components of "Resistance Economy", "Active Urban Cycle", "Influential Stakeholders" and "Urban Viability" are effective in urban financing, but less important in urban sustainability.

Rapid, irregular, and scattered urban development is the source of many urban problems. Understanding these issues demands a deep understanding of the distribution of the urban spatial structure. The urban mass is the occupied part of the city, whose accurate knowledge, helps the optimal urban management and can be a guidance light for the use of urban spaces in the future. For this purpose and with the aim of accurate and quick identification of the Ahvaz urban mass as the study area, the images taken by the NPP-VIIRS sensor at night are assumed as the base of this research. Moreover, the other factors such as improved vegetation, auxiliary points containing field information, earth surface temperature and geometric mean of the image, are used to prepare three indices HSI, HSI-POI (HP) and HSI-POI-LST (HPL) used in ENVI and ArcGIS software. Then, a support vector machine was used to identify the type of land in the built area using 1000 points. Next, the threshold limit corresponding to the highest overall accuracy and the kappa coefficient of each index were calculated. The general results showed that compared to other indices, HPL shows natural and social characteristics, and the output of this method provides higher spatial accuracy, more spatial details of the built-up area, and also more choices for evaluating small-scale urban areas. Also, The highest and lowest net area of the urban mass belongs to regions 3 and 1, which includes more than 56 and 34 percent of the area of each of these regions.

Blockchain technology is considered one of the top 30 technologies of the current decade and the future of humanity. At the same time, if this technology is combined with human and environment-oriented creativity and innovation, it can help sustainable urban development, especially tourism. This article is based on the existing gap in the lack of a comprehensive plan in the field of using blockchain technology in the sustainable urban tourism industry of Iran to a framework of the applications of this technology in the field of sustainable development policy, operational (business), and research. and provide infrastructure. Then, in each area, the most important influential indicators of blockchain technology in the direction of sustainable urban tourism have been identified. In total, blockchain has the greatest impact on preserving the cultural and social values of local communities among all indicators. Reducing the possibility of wrong booking, strengthening the power of tourism areas, quickly locating data problems that may occur between customers, agents, and hotels and sending messages to each party, and overcoming urban challenges such as the scattered growth of cities, environmental degradation, traffic congestion and direct communication between buyer and seller of services are in the next ranks of influence.

Religious tourism can bring about major changes in economical, social, and cultural conditions of local communities. Regarded as the greatest social mobility, this industry involves numerous cultural, economical, and formational consequences, constantly requiring its development to be effective in both the past and present. As the most suitable border passage for Arbaeen pilgrimage, the greatest Religious event in the world with millions of pilgrims participating in it, Mehran city allows 70% of holy shrines pilgrims to pass through its borders, proving itself as a city which has a high potential to achieve the regional sustainable future development brought about by religious tourism. Identifying the vital factors and main drivers affecting the future development of religious tourism in Mehran city, is in line with administrating and designing the possible scenarios in the future, policy-making framework, and flexible planning in synchronization with the region's conditions. This research, in terms of practical purpose and descriptive-analytic nature, is based on the desk studies and environmental observations. The data required for this research is selected, categorized, and formulated by utilizing the available studies regarding the future development of religious tourism, and five indexes: economical, social-cultural, management-planning, infrastructural-formational, environmental-geographical factors; then, using the delphi method for managers and elites, the cross-sectional effects matrix was formulated. In the next level, the matrix was analyzed by utilizing softwares such as Mic Mac and scenario wizard. After inspecting the rate and method by which these factors affect each other, and also future development status of the religious tourism, 13 key factors (fund-raising, integrated management, sanctions, weather conditions, tours, removing legal barriers, private sector, economical development, regulations, environmental factors, geopolitical situation, visa, and network connections) that had the most important roles in Mehran city's future development of religious tourism, were selected; then, using the capabilities presented by the scenario wizard 2, 2 strong scenarios, 9999 weak scenarios, and 4 believable scenarios were extracted.