Monitoring Trends Affecting Iran's Industry Based on A Foresight Method

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Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:
National priorities reflect the structures and strengths as well as interests of the dominant manufacturing industries in the economy. Many recent national analyzes of future of industry highlight industry activities that are expected to become more prominent in the future as a result of global top-level trends and emerging technological developments. Therefore, the current research aims to provide an overview of the factors shaping the future and important trends in the field of industry in Iran, which affect the industrial and production systems. This research seeks to implement a 3-step foresight framework called FSSF (Future Signals Sense-Making Framework) as a monitoring tool for future trends. In the first stage, by using interviews and open questionnaires and after monitoring and integration and summarising collected data, 21 effective trends on the future of Iran's industry were identified. In the second stage, mutual effects were analyzed by using MicMac software, and firstly, how the trends influence was analyzed, and finally, in the final stage, the strategic trends were identified. Based on the analysis of the research findings and the output of MicMac software, the trends of "change in foreign industrial policy", "improvement of human-centered production", "reduction of environmental effects and life cycle assessment" and "emphasis on social welfare and the economic basis of life through production" identified as Strategic trends. The identified trends of the future of industry in Iran indicate the ways of shaping and designing alternative futures for Iran's industry.
Language:
Persian
Published:
Commercial Surveys, Volume:21 Issue: 120, 2023
Pages:
31 to 48
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