Drought Risk Analysis using Drought Risk Assessment IndicesThe Case Study of Khorasan Razavi Province

Considering the persistence of drought and its destructive effects on various socio-economic sectors of Khorasan-Razavi province, this study is aimed at investigating the spatial-temporal changes of drought risk in the province and assessing the vulnerability to it. For this purpose, from the set of meteorological data during the 70-year period (1950-2020) and drought indices such as Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Rainfall Index (RAI) and Z-Index (ZSI) in order to evaluate the drought situation of the region in four-time scales. 3, 6, 12 and 24 months were used. Then, drought risk and vulnerability were evaluated using four drought risk indices (DHI), drought exposure index (DEI), drought vulnerability index (DVI) and combined drought risk index (DRI). According to the results of the DHI index, severe and very severe droughts correspond to the eastern, central and southern parts, which can be due to the increase in water consumption due to population development, agricultural and industrial development, as well as climate change. According to the results of DVI and DRI indicators, the regions correspond to severe and very severe droughts in the southern, western and central parts. The DEI index showed that in the central, eastern and southern parts of the province, the agricultural sector is the first sector to be affected by the destructive effects of drought due to excessive dependence on soil moisture reserves. Drought risk maps indicate the possibility of the region facing very dry conditions and affecting the water resources of the region in the short and medium term.