Evaluating and measuring the effects of foresight on development policies in academic libraries (case study: academic libraries of Kermanshah)

The purpose of the current research was to evaluate and measure the effects of foresight on development policy in university libraries in Kermanshah using structural equation modeling.

The research is applied in terms of purpose and causal in terms of descriptive nature. The statistical population includes librarians, faculty members, and managers of university libraries in Kermanshah. The research population consisted of 110 people and the sample size using the Morgan table included 86 people. The stratified sampling method was random. The method of collecting field data and the measurement tool was a researcher-made questionnaire. The validity of questionnaire was confirmed by content validity, and its reliability was calculated using Cronbach's alpha equal to 0.77. The method of data analysis was descriptive statistics and linear regression and structural equation modeling. The software used in the research was SPSS26 and Smart PLS 3.3.

The findings of the research show that foresight on the dimensions of development policy includes participation with a 58 percent effect, facilitating implementation with a 32 percent effect, informing with a 38 percent effect, support with a 42 percent effect and reconfiguration with a 54 percent effect. It has an impact on the development policy in academic libraries. Furthermore, the role of the moderating variable of policy was confirmed with 21 percent between the relationship among foresight and development policy.

According to the findings of the research, which indicates the impact of foresight on the policy dimensions of the development of university libraries, it can be concluded that the foresight is an effective factor on the development policy and its dimensions with 23 percent impact.