Future Study of Investment in Clean Energy Projects in Iran

Environmental disasters, stakeholder pressure, and global trends have caused the discussion of new energies and businesses in this field to be the focus of researchers. In Iran, the issue of sanctions, dependence of industries on fossil fuels and the traditional mentality of managers has restricted growth and development of clean energy. Development in this field requires a correct understanding of the future and fundamental planning. Without paying attention to financing, which is one of the most important challenges for the development of any business, it will not be possible to continue the activity. Therefore, the current research identified drivers and investment scenarios in the field of clean energy.

The current research is pragmatic in terms of philosophy and applied in terms of orientation. Also, this study is exploratory in terms of objective and mixed in terms of methodology. The statistical population of the research were experts in the field of clean energy and financing. Using judgmental sampling, 15 managers working in Iran Renewable Energy Association, Iran Energy Association, Environmental Protection Organization and university professors in the relevant fields have been used. The research has been done in five steps. In the first step, key drivers were identified through background review and interviews with experts. In the second step, the drivers were screened through an expert questionnaire and using the fuzzy Delphi method. In the third step, the screened propellants were analyzed through the effect measurement questionnaire and using the fuzzy Dimetal method, and the final propellants were identified based on the degree of effectiveness. In the fourth step, believable scenarios were developed using CATWOE. The probable scenario was identified with CODAS technique.

By reviewing the background and interviewing experts, 24 drivers were extracted. Using the fuzzy Delphi method, 12 drivers whose diphasis number was higher than the threshold (0.7) were selected. Then, with the Fuzzy Dimetal technique, the two drivers of the laws related to the energy field and the government's view on the need to enter the field of clean energy were identified and evaluated as suitable for the development of scenarios. Based on these two drivers, four scenarios of soul prison, auspicious, Anti-innovation culture, and poisonous structure were developed. The soul prison scenario depicts the pessimistic future and the auspicious scenario shows the best scenario. Then, using CODAS technique, the soul prison scenario was selected as the most probable scenario.

Policy makers should try to make Karmiar's ideal scenario happen instead of realizing the soul prison scenario, which happens to be the worst scenario. For this purpose, laws and policies should be established to improve the business environment in the field of clean energy. Such laws should remove obstacles to attract foreign capital while increasing domestic capital. These laws should enable the transfer of advanced technologies through fiscal and financial support. The view of government officials on the need to enter into clean energy as the second most important driver has cultural roots and originates from managers' ignorance of clean energy and its advantages in the business environment. For this reason, universities, research centers, social media, non-governmental organizations supporting the environment, global and regional developments and environmental disasters play an important role in changing this attitude. In Iran, because managers are forced to accept change at the last moment, change is sudden and has increasing costs. It is hard to expect change without doing inclusive and spontaneous cultural work. Cultivation plays an important role in favoring green products. In addition, changing the attitude of managers can lead to the facilitation of financing as a key challenge in the field of clean energy.