Development of Iranian Petrochemical Products Exports to ECOTA Trade Agreement Member Countries Using Decision Support Model and Economic Complexity Approach

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The most important relative advantage of Iran’s economy has long been the export of crude oil and natural gas. Due to the raw nature of these products, specialization in the production and export of these products will not have a significant effect on the sustainable economic growth of Iran’s economy. One of the solutions to this problem, is to infiltrate the downstream industries of these products, the most important of which is the development of the petrochemical industry. In this study, an attempt has been made to examine Iran’s export opportunities in the petrochemical industry to four member countries of the ECOTA trade agreement, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Turkey, using the integrated approach of the economic complexity-decision support model. The results of the research show that Iran’s most attractive export opportunities exist in the market of Turkey and then Pakistan, most of which are related to the export of crude oil and natural gas or other upstream products of the petrochemical industry. In the intermediate and downstream products of the petrochemical industry, Iran has a good export performance in the world market, but has not been able to penetrate well in the mentioned countries. The results of the research show that these products also have a significant market in Turkey and Pakistan, which also their tariff rate is less than 5% on average. Based on this, there are potential export opportunities for developing the export of middle and downstream products in the market of these countries.