Designing a Model for Avoiding Exchange Rate Crises in Central Bank Policies with an Integrated Approach

Foreign exchange crisis is one of the major challenges in the economies of countries, In exchange rate crises, the value of the national currency decreases relative to foreign currencies, and the exchange rate suddenly increases. In this context, the aim of this research is to design a model for avoiding exchange rate crises in the policies of central banks using an integrated approach. The research method is a mixed one, incorporating qualitative data analysis based on Strauss and Corbin's grounded theory approach and quantitative data analysis involving a Delphi survey. Interviews were conducted as the research tool for the qualitative section, and researcher-designed questionnaires were used for the quantitative part. The research participants in the qualitative section include experts, opinion leaders, policy-makers, and decision-makers in the field of exchange rate policies of the central bank, as well as managers of government banks and professors in public management, totaling twelve individuals. The Delphi participants consisted of thirty individuals, including managers and opinion leaders in the exchange rate field from Sepah Bank, Mashhad branch. The research findings cover critical conditions of the central bank's exchange rate policies, banking policies, and managerial reasons. The main focus of the research is to avoid exchange rate crises, which involves components such as avoiding payment balance crises and avoiding exchange rate crises. The strategies encompass public opinion management, managed floating exchange rate systems, restraint strategy, and interactive strategy. The consequences involve social and economic development. The areas of concern include supportive policies and cultural factors, while the interveners encompass political, economic, and investor behavior factors. Based on the research findings, it can be stated that avoiding exchange rate crises necessitates coordination and collaboration between the central bank and other institutions, along with the development of strategies appropriate for the country's economic conditions.