Evaluation of anthropogenic factors influencing groundwater level: Application of spatial modeling

In this study, different spatial models for panel data have been estimated in order to evaluate the effects of anthropogenic factors on the depth of groundwater resources, which includes all the provinces of Iran between the years 2008 and 2019. The investigated anthropogenic factors are the population, the area under irrigated orchard farming, the area under irrigated crop farming, per capita industrial value-added, per capita services value-added and the level of non-dependency on ground water resources. The results of the spatial modeling illustrate that the first three factors, i.e., the population and the area under irrigated orchard and crop farming, are the main factors influencing the depth of groundwater resources, so that one percent increase in each of them bring about an increase in the depth of aquifers by 0.196, 0.089, and 0.062 percent, respectively. Furthermore, the current distribution of the population and irrigated agriculture activities throughout the country are not compatible with the groundwaters’ conditions and the level of dependency on these resources, and the continuity of this situation will only lead to the persistence of the depletion of groundwater resources. In addition, the modeling results reveal that industrial development has a negligible contribution to the depth of aquifers, and the development of the service sector, unlike other economic activities can even help restoring groundwater resources. The level of non-dependency on groundwater resources can also help to restore these resources by reducing the pressure on groundwater resources.