Explaining the Mediating Role of Influential Variables in Determining Housing Prices. Case study: Tabriz Metropolis

Introduction :

Housing is the main challenge related to urbanisation, so it is both the driver of urban growth and its result. On the other hand, housing has always been considered one of the basic needs in urban societies, which defines the quality of life and well-being of the citizens of every nation. It has always been very important in the life of urban societies. The innovation of the current research can be proposed in the sense that in the research carried out so far, the variables affecting housing prices have been modelled linearly or spatially and simultaneously with the help of regression models or spatial correlation tests. This is even though many variables influence the housing price, especially the social characteristics of the place of residence, economic characteristics on a macro and micro scale, neighbourhoods, and accessibility, which have a moderating and controlling role on the housing price. They say that this issue has not been addressed in the reviewed research. Tabriz metropolis, the sixth metropolis in the country, is facing many problems, such as a high population concentration and high land and housing prices. In the last two decades, the increasing growth of the urban population in the metropolis of Tabriz has significantly changed the housing price equations in this city. Therefore, this article, while examining the factors that influence the final price of housing in Tabriz metropolis, seeks to investigate the mediating role of influencing variables on the final housing price in Tabriz metropolis. For this purpose, by checking the theoretical framework of the research as well as examining the background and theories related to pricing in the housing sector, the selection of the most important components and sub-components influencing the price of housing in the metropolis of Tabriz will be made. In the next step, a certain number of real estate consultants in Tabriz metropolis will be questioned, and then the data will be analysed in the SPSS software environment using various statistical tests. The similarities and differences between the current research and the previous studies will be examined, as well as the conclusions from the research.

The current research is in the category of applied research. In terms of methodology, it is included in the category of correlational research in which regression methods are used to investigate the mediating role of economic, social, and accessibility variables in estimating The final price of housing in Tabriz metropolis. The studied population included all the entrepreneurs of the Tabriz metropolis, 55 cases of which were selected from real estate consultants who were ready to cooperate using the snowball method. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to collect data, and its face validity and reliability were calculated through Cronbach’s alpha 2 test. This questionnaire included four physical, economic, social, and access variables and had 39 items. After questioning, the data were entered into the SPSS 26 software environment, and the pre-tests of Kolmogorov Smirnoff, Shapiro Wilke, Durbon Watson, Tolerance, and VIF were used to determine the statistical tests and also verify the validity of the used tests. It was taken advantage of. In this way, normal distribution pre-tests (Kolmogrove-Smirnov and Shapiro-Wilk) were used to determine the statistical tests, and Durbon-Watson, VIF, and Tolerance pre-tests were used to verify the correctness of the regression model. After the pre-tests, the main tests were conducted as follows: First, using stepwise regression, the number of items was reduced from 39 items to 18 items, and then the inter-regression method was used to investigate the mediating role of the mediating variables of the research. Finally, Sobel’s test confirmed the control and mediation role of mediating variables.

After reviewing the literature and background of the research, the most important criteria and sub-criteria influencing determining the final price of housing were identified: The physical-physical criteria (13 sub-criteria), economic (9 sub-criteria), social (10 sub-criteria) and access and proximity (7 sub-criteria) were chosen as the four main criteria of this research. Then, in the next step, using step-by-step regression, a deeper investigation of the relationship between the dependent variable of the research (housing price) and the independent variables of the research (physical-physical, economic, social, and access) was done. At first, by entering the dependent variable (housing price) and 39 other sub-criteria of the research as independent variables, only 18 items are known to be effective on the dependent variable of housing price, which have been entered into the model in the order of influence, as well as 21 other sub-criteria. They were removed from the model. The first variable entered into the stepwise multivariate regression equation is the distance of the residential unit from the nearest medical-sanitary use. The second variable that has played a very important role in determining the final price of housing in Tabriz metropolis is the level of education of the residents. After the residents’ education level variable, 15 variables that have the most influence in determining the housing price in Tabriz metropolis are related to bank interest rate, building size, household size, price of construction materials, renovation fees, and age. The building, the distance of the residential unit from the nearest public transportation stations, the number of newly built units, the type of skeleton (structure), the good reputation of the citizens, the age of the head of the household, investment, the facade of the building, the distance of the residential unit from the nearest green space and Park and finally the distance of the residential unit from the nearest religious place. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the effect of each independent variable on the final housing price in the Tabriz metropolis. Also, the Durbon-Watson test was used to verify the validity of the presented model. According to the results, social factors are more important in predicting the “final housing price” variable. Therefore, it can be said that determining the final price of housing in the Tabriz metropolis is more influenced by social factors than any other variable. After ensuring there is no correlation between the influential mediating variables in determining the final housing price in the Tabriz metropolis, Sobel’s test was used to investigate the mediating role of each mediating variable. In general, it can be said that the mediating role of economic, social, and accessibility variables in increasing the influence of the independent variable (physical factor) in determining the final housing price (dependent variable) in the Tabriz metropolis is evident. Among the mediating variables, the social variable (6.998) has the greatest effect in determining the final housing price in the Tabriz metropolis. After that, access (4.667) and economic (2.736) mediating variables are ranked second and third, respectively.

The results obtained from the multiple regression indicated that the physical-physical factor only explains 48% of the changes in the final housing price in the metropolis of Tabriz, and the rest (52%) are related to economic, social, and access factors. In general, it can be said that in connection with determining the final price of housing in the Tabriz metropolis, the physical factor (independent variable) is not the only determining factor, and social, access, and economic factors are mediating and mediating factors in the increase The influence of the physical factor in determining the final housing price (dependent variable) in Tabriz metropolis has a significant role, among the influential factors, the most influential factors are related to social factors (Beta = 0.435), physical-physical factors (Beta = 0.302) ), access (Beta = 0.290) and finally economic (Beta = 0.272). To put it better, According to the respondents, social characteristics are more influential in determining the final price of housing in Tabriz metropolis compared to other characteristics. In the final step, Sobel’s test was used to confirm the controlling and mediating role of mediating and mediating research variables (economic, social, and access). The obtained results indicate the confirmation of the mediating role of the mentioned variables in increasing the influence of the independent variable (physical factor) in determining the final housing price (dependent variable) in Tabriz metropolis and also the significant correspondence of the results obtained in The Sobel test with the results obtained from the multiple regression is evident in such a way that among the mediating variables, the social variable (6.998) has the most influence in determining the final housing price in Tabriz metropolis, and then the order of the mediating variables. (4.667) and economic (2.736) are in the second and third ranks. In a better way, it can be said that the social bases of residents in Tabriz metropolis, as well as the good reputation of citizens, have a significant effect compared to other factors (physical-physical, economic, and accessibility) in determining the final price of housing in Tabriz metropolis.