Foresight-based Business Model Design: Presentation and Validation of a Conceptual Model

A business model is a strategic concept that shows how to create, deliver, and obtain value. Although business models change along with environmental changes, they need innovation, anticipation, exploratory thinking, and momentum to overcome the acceleration of changes. Business model innovation requires design insight. Foresight is a systematic and collaborative process for building the future, which focuses on making businesses future-oriented through consultation, knowledge acquisition, and visioning. Existing business model design patterns pay little attention to the design space and the future. Moreover, existing foresight frameworks do not pay enough attention to business model design. Therefore, studies indicate the need to provide a comprehensive model to consider the changes in the environment, existing uncertainties, and future situations in business model design. This research was carried out with the aim of solving the gap in the literature and presenting a conceptual model of business model design based on foresight.
 
This research was both practical and exploratory in its purpose, rooted in pragmatism, and followed a mixed-methods (qualitative and quantitative) approach with an inductive reasoning framework. In the theoretical stage, using the systematic review method, the literature and scientific works related to the subject of the research were reviewed, analyzed, and categorized. Then, through a conceptual study, using the obtained insights and combining the existing models, the proposed conceptual model was designed. To validate the model, 12 people were selected as a sample from among the experts in futures studies and business management, who were the target community of the research. At this stage, a questionnaire was used to collect information. The validity of the questionnaire was approved by experts, and its reliability was confirmed by calculating the Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.768. To check the normality of the data, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was performed, and based on the results, the data were normal. Then, a one-sample t-test was used to analyze the answers. The organization of documents and citations was done using Pazhuhyar software (version 2), and the calculations were done using SPSS software (version 27).
 
The results showed that in past studies, a group of researchers gave little attention to futures studies in business model design. A few of them focused on some aspects of future research, while giving more importance to sustainability and the business model design space. Another group of researchers used some futures studies techniques as a toolbox. A few examined future research and foresight as a framework for business model development, but they did not provide a comprehensive framework for business model design based on foresight. Along with the conceptual study, Osterwalder and Pigneur's business model design process and Voros's general foresight framework were identified as suitable models for integrating and presenting the desired conceptual model. Based on this, the proposed conceptual model for designing a business model based on foresight, by integrating the two mentioned models, was designed, presented, and approved by the experts.
 
Based on the findings of the research, designing business models based on foresight can cover the weaknesses of previous research and existing models by considering various futures, adopting a multi-level approach, and pursuing the realization of strategies, thus helping businesses become future-oriented. It is suggested that business model designers, in the design process, pay attention to the knowledge of environmental changes and possible futures and plan for the transformation of the business model according to alternative futures. The application of the proposed model can help achieve this purpose. Also, the results of the application of the proposed model can be evaluated and analyzed by other researchers.