Cause of non oil Export Instability Case study: Fars and East Azerbaijan Provinces Print

In this research the tries are for surveying of total trend of non oil export during the 1360-86 and various sectors of export including manufacturing and mine, agricultural and carpet in the Fars and East Azerbaijan, for specifying the Total of Export instability is due of which of the mentioned sectors. First, to reach this goal, by using of Coppock Index, the process of export instability of each of the mentioned sectors is being calculated and compared. In the next stage by using of an econometric model and by calculating of Macbean index, the instability index for the total period and for the various sectors are being calculated the effect of each of these export instability indices with the sector concentration variable and also the real exchange rate variable in the process of export stability for the mentioned provinces are being considered. The results of comparing the periods in this research show that Coppock instability index is going to decrease in both provinces and the instability variations of this index in the eastern Azerbaijan for the Carpet group is more than the agriculture and manufacturing and mine groups and this index variations for Fars provinces in the agriculture sector have been more than the manufacturing and mine sector and carpet group. The results of estimating of regression model for the effective factors on the export instability for the considered period show that in eastern Azerbaijan only the carpet group and the real exchange rate variable and in Fars only the agriculture sector and the real exchange rate variable have important and determining role.