Evaluation of Forecasting Implementations and Development Directions in Master Plan of Lar City

1-Introduction Evaluation of master plan can be an important tool in measuring the success of implementation of master plans. Evaluation process can help urban planners to be familiar with the problems of comprehensive plans. The purpose of this article is to evaluate of main suggestions proposed in master plan of Lar city, located in southern Iran. The research method used in this study is a combination of qualitative evaluation methods and Fuzzy logic (based on Michael OHagen methodology). 2- Theoretical bases Evaluation, scientificly speaking, is new knowledge especially in Iran, particularly in urban and regional planning that, does not exceed 40 years. From a scientific perspective, evaluation is a systematic process for collecting, analyzing and interpreting data. In fact, evaluation is a method to show whether the objectives and goals of the project have been realized, or are being realized? And, to what extent the goals have been achieved so far? Qualitative and quantitative evaluations, especially in urban studies, have important roles. For example, it can be used for both qualitative and quantitativeevaluation in the process of land use planning. In quantitative evaluation, Optimal Allocation of Lands to the standards and per capita in urban areas is often considered. In qualitative evaluation, some different components are considered such as social benefits; balance planning, Reliance, adaptability, utility and capacity of land uses. 3– Discussion Findings of the study show significant differences between the predicted population in year 2001 and the status quo of the city of Lar (opposite to the comprehensive plan predictions) in 2006. In spite of increasing population in many other cities of Iran, the process of population growth in Lar city has been faced with decreasing steps so that it was 0.06% in 2006. On the other hand, whereas comprehensive plan had forecasted that the population of this city will reach nearly to 60000 people in 2001, the population of this city in 1385 doesn’t still have reached to predicted population in 2001 (The current population of the city of Lar is 55000 people). On this incorrect prediction, many of land uses and proposed transport network are not compatible with the proposed status. At the same time, while the master plan of Lar city has suggested the direction of development in western lands, the status quo shows most of the development direction is devoted to the areas the old and new cities (central district). 4– Conclusion The findings of this study shows that most forecasts and per capita of land use in this plan were incorrect according to forecast of the population of the city and despite passing several years from the execution of the master plan, yet some proposed per capita of land use has not been achieved. Moreover, the proposed development directions of the city in this plan are not compatible with the status quo. Overall, it can be claimed that the master plan of Lar city was not successful in predicting the per capita of land use and proposed development directions. 5– Suggestions 5-1- In the process of master plan preparation, especially in cities with a vast sphere of influence and impact such as the city of Lar, paying attention to the regional studies, regional population movements, social and cultural conditions of the inhabitants of the town is essential. 5-2- Establishing a local office of consulting engineers to amend the master plan process with emphasis on Participatory Planning is necessary. 5-3- In the next steps, land use per capita can be evaluated in GIS software. 5-4- (CDS), which is used in many cities all over the world can be used in Lar, as a different approach from the previous plans.