Simulation of food security based on changing production resources and trade policies

Food security means access to all people, a society consistently at all times to enough food for an active and healthy life. Climate change and demographic conditions in addition to prevailing along the world has caused the irritability that food security in developing plans and visions of the country considered. In this regard, the study of food security in the next ten years (2009-2019) based on changes in resource production and trade policies (import) are predicted. Production and import demand functions of plant products were estimated applying time series data of 1981-2008 and the status of different groups’ access to the materials and energy estimate food consumption was assessed in the future. The result showed that per capita food production and supply to the base year will be reduced if the production resources to be used are in undesirable status. But appropriate and optimal use of resources makes the production of agricultural sector in the future alone and without the need to import food security community. Furthermore, the distributions of food and energy situation have not been appropriate and the first to fifth deciles of income groups, consume food and energy less than that of the national average, while the share of eighth to tenth deciles exceeds the country's average level.