فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 77 (بهار 1395)

Monetary and fiscal policy makers should notice that these policies have effect on stock market performance and its liquidity. In this study with using econometrics models, relationship between stock market liquidity and fiscal and monetary policies has been investigated. For this purpose, SVAR, Markov switching and Kalman filter models are used. In order to apply these models, data from Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) are used from 1378 to 1393 periods. Based on the results of SVAR model, Expansionary monetary policy has positive effect on stock market liquidity, but fiscal policy hasn’t significant effect on stock market liquidity. In addition outputs of Markov switching model, monetary policy has positive and significant effect on market liquidity boom periods .Also, growth of bank deposit interest rate has strong negative effect on stock market liquidity and exchange rate growth effect isn’t stable and strong. Moreover, growth rate of housing price has weak negative effect on stock market liquidity.

This paper is to study the optimal monetary and fiscal policy in overlapping generations models with Cash-in-advance constraints. By help of the intertemporal equilibrium, the decentralization the optimal growth path is considered by using available policy instruments (i.e, taxes on wages, taxes on capital, public debt and the creation of money).
The results showed that although the tax rate on capital was always smaller than the ratio of government expenditures to production, but in the special case of Friedman Rule, the two rates were equal to each other. The results revealed that if the government cares equally about all generations, the tax rate on wage will be equal to the ratio of government expenditures to production. To calibrate the model, in addition to the values of the parameters of previous studies, the initial values of variables were used in year 2013. Also, the results of calibrating the model for Iran's economy show that it may take approximately 30 periods for the economy to reach a steady state. However, a comparison between current state and steady state indicates that 8 percent and 32 percent increases in capital per capita and public debt per capita in the steady state.

Maximization of the economic value of the exploitation of oil and gas resources in economic literature as the target state (as owner of the resource) is known. This goal is achievable when the contract conditions (which regulate the behavior of investors in the exploitation of the reservoir) is also taken into account. In this paper, the dynamically optimal oil production in the one of the Iran's oil fields in the South West with a buyback contract framework is considered as a case study by the use of Bellman equation in Matlab program and with regard to expected price path and interest rate scenario, the results shows that the optimal production path traced by model in comparison to path specified in the contract is different. In addition, Comparison these results and contractual profile to the expected behavior of international oil companies that is proposed high production level in early years of reservoir life cycle are consistent. Note that, any changes in the contract parameters would the constant parameter of cost function and minimum production rate condition in the model. According to the have been that in Status of High expectations of prices, Optimum path specified in the model, there is no reaction to changes in these factors.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the feasibility of forming an optimum currency area among Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) member countries. One of the most important criteria in forming currency :union: between countries of one reign is synchronization of economic shocks. In other words, if fluctuations of macroeconomic variables source of regional member countries are regional shocks, then forming a monetary :union: between those countries would be an appropriate policy. This paper uses Bayesian state-space model in order to obtain the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in ECO countries. And fluctuations in GDP, consumption and investment in these countries were due to 4 non-observable factors of world common shocks, regional common shocks, country specific shocks and idiosyncratic shocks. The results indicate that regional shocks don’t play a predominant role in explaining fluctuations of gross domestic production, consumption and investment in ECO member countries. Although, the share of regional shocks in macroeconomic shocks has been increased after forming the ECO organization, but still the country shocks has the most important role in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations. Then according to results, the policymakers should apply independent monetary policy encountering business cycles, so the use of a common currency area among ECO countries is not a proper monetary policy.

The providing regional input-output tables with statistical method are complex and take a lot of times therefore researchers use non-statistical methods. The latest model to provide regional input-output table is AFLQ. But according to accounts of regional statistical center of Iran, in this method, export and final demand are considered as residual. While, the cross-hauling among regions is ignored. To overcome the above problems, in this research, CHARM method is introduced. This method can solve the above problems. To compare the results of two methods, Bushehr province was chosen as a case study. The results indicate that 12.7 percent of total trade volumes are belong to cross-hauling. Moreover, amounts of coefficient of backward and forward linkages in CHARM method are bigger than AFLQ method. Because in the CHARM method, the first area of input-output table, include intermediate imports. On the other hand, in two methods, ranking of sectors are different

The market efficiency has been one of the most important subjects of financial markets in last decades. The Efficient Market Hypothesis states that all available information is fully and immediately reflected in asset prices, so there is no the possibility of achieving systematic profits resulting from price forecast. The main goal of this paper is to consider weak form of efficiency hypothesis in two regimes of high volatility and low volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange. In order to test weak form of efficiency hypothesis in Tehran Stock Exchange, a Markov Switching GARCH method has been used during October 1997 until September 2011. The estimation results of Markov Switching GARCH model indicate that Tehran Stock Exchange has not weak form efficiency in two regimes of high and low volatility. Therefore, regarding the importance of stock market in financing corporations, it is necessary that policy makers applying suitable policy in line with market efficiency to provide investment security in the market as well.

Act of subsidies targeting was run to increase the efficiency and allocate the resource in Iran economy from Azar 1389. In this act increasing energy and wheat prices were emphasized by economy policy makers. To prevent the loss welfare effects of price increase, the government attempted to cash payments to households. In this paper, the main purpose is to measure true cost of living index and compensatory variation through Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) for urban households in 1390. The results indicate that the most welfare surplus gained of paying cash subsidies was the first group (first decile) and each person of this group should spend 189603 Rials to reach level of utility in 1389. Therefore according to government pay cash subsidy, per person of first group has 265397 Rials surplus income. The lowest welfare surplus gained on average deciles (8-9), so these families are faced with 39593 Rials reduced welfare.

With due attention to the oil position of Iran economy, investigating the reasons of changes in oil price and modeling to predict its fluctuations has always been one of the most important domains in study of Iran economy literature. With the expansion of oil stock and oil futures market, oil market and then theory of price expectations changed formation of crude oil price. So in short term, with changes in interest rate in effect of monetary policy, liquidity flows between financial markets (money, bond, capital) and oil market, crude oil price deviates from its long-term path. This paper examines the deviation of crude oil price form its long-term path with regard to the relationship between mentioned markets in short-term which mainly are due to monetary policy. For this purpose, Fisher price model and Samuelson theorem are tested by use of time series data of 2005-2013 AD and Garch model test. The results show that the effect of changing in interest rate on crude oil index ( Dubai, Oman and Brent) is negative. Also, the effect of changing of stock market capitalization on this crude oil price is positive. The main reasons for negative impact of rising interest rates are increase of maintenance costs, storage of crude oil and as a result they caused to reduced demand in cash market. Also, positive impact of changes in capital market because of industrial developments, which can lead to increase demand for crude oil in market, can be explained.

Value Added Tax (VAT) which its Act has been approved and executed during the last few years for some firms in Iran, is one of the forms of indirect-taxes known and has implications for economic indices including employment. Since considering positive and negative implications of any new policy is requisite for gaining more success in executing that policy, it is necessary to investigate VAT law performance in different countries. This study aims to investigate the relation between VAT execution and employment. The method used is dynamic panel data (OGMM) and the statistic sample covers 27 countries including 11 non-OECD and 16 OECD countries. Results show that the impact of VAT law execution on employment is 0.089 in non-OECD and 0.04 in OECD countries. Therefore the impact in the two groups of countries is both positive and statistically significant. It is also concluded that other forms of taxation have impacts of -0.014 and -0.029 for non-OECD and OECD countries respectively. So it could be said that VAT has a positive impact on employment while other forms of taxation result in decreasing it.