فصلنامه راهبرد اقتصادی
پیاپی 27 (زمستان 1397)

One goal of the Iranian Vision Document is to advocate for improvement in the quality of life of Iranians. This improvement majorly includes enhancing public health, public education, purchasing power etc. Another goal of this document is to move towards a more innovative economy through exporting knowledge-based products and declining the dependency to the export of crude oil. Toachieve these goals, innovation should receive adequate support. This paper analyses the current relationship between innovation and welfare in Iran and its nominated competitor countries, mostly located in the Southwest Asia, in the Vision Document. HDI was applied as a proxy for welfare. The share of R&D of GDP, the share of FDI of GDP and portion of high-technology exports in GDP were the selected variables to indicate innovation. The results of this study showed the effectiveness of FDI in improving the welfare and quality of life.

There are several concepts in the global literature on the semantic relationship with a Resilience economy, the most important of which are Economic Resilience, Economic Vulnerability, Economic Solidarity, Macroeconomic Stability, and Economic Fragility. In this research, by examining these concepts, examining and explaining their relation to Resilience Economy and Resilience Economy policies, the index of Resilience in the Islamic banking system has been extracted so that the Resilience in the Islamic banking system, from a conceptual and theoretical term used as a practical model for an Islamic country. For resistance indexing, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a ten-step method for designing and estimating composite indices, has been used. Based on six components of Resilience, including economic justice, populism, knowledge base, jihadist culture, extraversion and endogeny, the combination of Islamic banking resistance index with two weighted and non-identical weighting methods based on Expert Choice software and bank resistance and Its fluctuations in the country have been measured on the basis of the aforementioned combined index during the first to fifth development plans. The results show that according to the designed index, the highest and the lowest resistance in the banking system are related to the Fifth and First Development Plans and the highest and the lowest Resilience fluctuations are related to the First Development and the Fourth Development Plans.

In this research, after reviewing the history of the two pipelines of TAPI and IPI, and examining the conditions of the energy market, especially natural gas in both India and Pakistan, the behavior of these two countries has been analyzed in relation to the two pipelines of TAPI and IPI with the game theory approach. In this section, taking into account the income from natural gas imports and its costs, both economic and political, for both India and Pakistan, by adopting a single-stage, sequential game with complete information, the strategic behavior of the two countries concerning the TAPI and IPI pipeline has been modeled. The final result was explained using the maximin principle and the result of the model is that the choice of both pipelines, TAPI and IPI, for both India and Pakistan is the point of equilibrium. In the coming years, these two countries will need a lot of natural gas to generate economic growth and domestic demand. India, as one of the five emerging economies in the international economy and member of the BRICS group, needs a lot of fossil energy carriers, especially natural gas. The gap between the supply and demand of natural gas in Pakistan is estimated at 40 billion cubic meters in 2020 according to the country's Institute for Petroleum Studies, which is consistent with the model of the choice of both TAPI and IPI pipelines. Another important feature of IPI is its stability in the long time, which can resolve the need for India and Pakistan over the years. Despite the fact that the Western governments, especially the United States, did not support the IPI pipeline and impose political costs on both countries of India and Pakistan, but taking into account these political costs, the IPI pipeline will be a serious option for supplying natural gas for these two countries; Therefore, the Islamic Republic of Iran should stop the Media hegemony of the Western countries by emphasizing the economic overcoming of the IPI pipeline over its political costs.

While PLS contract is one of the main components of Islamic banks in the Islamic Banking literature, it is not welcomed enough by them in practice. This paper through Deduction research method, tries to critically review the current situation of PLS implementation in Iranian banking system and then Suggests a conceptual and incentive-compatible model based on systemic approach in order to fill the gap between theory and practice. we examine the effectiveness of this .model using game theory.

The aim of this paper is to assess –on both theoretical and empirical grounds–the two main views regarding the money creation process, namely the endogenous and exogenous money approaches. After analysing the main issues and the related empirical literature, we will apply a VAR and VECM methodology to the Iran in the period 1379-1398 to assess the causal relationship between a number of critical variables that are supposed to determine the money supply, i.e., the monetary base, bank deposits and bank loans. The empirical analysis carried out supports the endogenous money approach.

The basic question of this study is how and how much controlling the macroeconomic factors can be effective in managing the risk of petrochemical industry investments. To respond, the impacts of the most important economic factors, affecting the active petrochemical industry in the Tehran stock market (as one of the most important Informational databases in the case of Iranian economy), are examined with considering the revealed facts and evidences of the country's economy, feasibility of study, operational capability, quantitative analysis, literature review, and published official statistics. In this way, it has been attempted to identify the most important macroeconomic variables affecting the investment risk in the petrochemical industry. In this regard, a new statistical method, based on the long-term memory approach (a nonlinear long-term memory conditional heteroscedasticity (FIGARCH)), has been applied. For this purpose, the optimal patterns were estimated by using the monthly time series data during the period from November 2008 to October 2018. The results of the study, in addition to confirm the existence of a significant relationship based on economic-financial theories between economic factors and investment risk in the petrochemical industry, emphasize on the more critical role of both the exchange and inflation rates variables in comparison with other variables of the research in order to managing investment risks in the petrochemical industry. Furthermore, the effects of oil price and the openness degree of the economy are the other significant macroeconomic variables in determining the risk behavior of investing in this industry.