فصلنامه راهبرد دفاعی
پیاپی 72 (زمستان 1399)

One of the basic areas of guaranteeing the national security of countries regarding protection of their national interests and achieving permanent authority is focusing on the military-defense arena and the factors affecting their defense power in order to prevent deterrence of enemy threats. Regarding the prevalence of uncertainty in foreseeing the future of Iran's relations and developments in the region and in the international system, understanding the position and military-defense capability in order to deal with future threats is one of the prime necessities. This research is conducted to explain the key factors affecting Iran's defense power in the horizon of 2031 based on previous scientific documents and records and using the opinions of 50 field experts. It is an applied-developmental research which employed a combination of descriptive-analytical and survey methods (using experts' opinion and questionnaire). Also, in terms of time domain, data collection was done in 2020 and its results will cover the decade from 2021 to 2031, regarding place it is limited to Iran and thematically, the issue of Iran's defense power will be examined from the perspective of geopolitical points of view. A total of 706 propulsion forces were identified and then these obtained forces were divided into six categories: Military, economic, political, socio-cultural, geographical-environmental and scientific-technological. After that, by forming an expert meeting, similar propulsion forces are combined with each other, and then, they were ranked and their value were determined using the Friedman model. Finally, using MICMAC Software and Cross-impact matrix analysis, 27 important and influential factors were identified which out of these 27 factors, 10 factors were considered as key ones affecting Iran's defense power.

Holy defense, like majority of the general governance areas of society, has been full of decisions made by policymakers, actors, and beneficiary groups at the macro level. The focus of managerial research of the holy defense so far has generally been on how to manage and decide at the level of military operations, but this study focuses on how to make major (governance) decisions regarding it at the level of high-ranking national and military officials and tries to answer some questions such as "what are the factors affecting the decision-making of politicians and commanders of the holy defense?", "what are the influential actors in the governing decision-making process of the holy defense?", and "what are the steps of sovereign decision-making process of the holy defense?" These questions ultimately provide the answer to the main research question: "What are the dimensions and components of the sovereign decision of the holy defense?" For this purpose, and due to the lack of relevant theoretical and research background, the application of a qualitative approach and a Grounded theorizing method based on the viewpoint of "Strauss and Corbin" was included in the research agenda. The results of the research by conducting interviews with the governing actors of the Holy Defense (mostly with members of the Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarter during the Holy Defense) as well as conducting a separate study on the decision-making process for the adoption of Resolution 598 and other written documents led to the formation of 996 key points in the form of 142 concepts as well as 43 abstract categories. These categories were then classified into 6 sections defined in the major coding paradigm of research. Finally, the theoretical propositions of the research were obtained by performing selective coding in the form of 5 theorems and 12 theoretical sub-theorems.

The present study was conducted with aim of providing strategies to promote self-confidence among personnel of a military organization. In this regard, in the first step, internal factors (strengths and weaknesses) and external factors (opportunities and environmental threats) affecting employees' self-esteem with a preliminary study were identified by researchers at the organization level and then these factors were reviewed and adjusted by the team of research experts (including experts in the fields of psychology and sociology, as well as commanders and managers at the strategic levels). Then, an expert-based questionnaire was prepared based on the identified factors and distributed among the expert team to determine the score of each factor regarding the employees' self-confidence. In the next step, based on the experts' opinions, the score and weight of each factor were determined and the internal factor (IFE) and external factor (EFE) evaluation matrices were adjusted. Also, based on the calculated weighted scores, the strategic position of the organization in regard to the self-confidence of the personnel was determined and the gap between the current and desired situation was identified. Finally, based on the (SWOT) model, strategies to promote employees' self-confidence were developed. The results of the research resulted in the creation of 13 strategies to promote staff's self-confidence. At the end, the executive proposals for each strategy were separately presented.

Some of the interests of the United States are largely associated with Southwest Asia and the issues arising from it. The doctrines and strategies of this country are being compiled obviously based on the context of this region and, above all, the Holy System of I.R. of Iran. Recent developments in the world and the neighboring region of I.R. of Iran confirms explanation of U.S. military guidelines and strategies against I.R. of Iran by organizing the nature of its threats in terms of establishing or strengthening fixed bases. It is obvious that the presence of American forces near the borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran is always considered as a serious threat to this holy system and the consequences of establishing permanent bases in the region will be directly against the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, this study aimed to identify "the impact of US guidelines and strategies regarding the establishment of permanent US bases in the peripheral region of the Islamic Republic of Iran" which answered the corresponding research question. This research is an applied-developmental one and it employed a descriptive-analytical mixed method approach. Both field and library methods were used to collect data. Qualitative data analysis, descriptive analysis and data Quantitative inferential analysis were performed. To answer the research question with regard the characteristics of the statistical population, 42 experts in this field were purposefully selected and a research questionnaire was distributed among them. The highest effect of "the role of US guidelines and strategies in establishing fixed bases in the neighborhood of the Islamic Republic of Iran" is related to the "Energy Security Strategy" with a value of 4.667 and a very high weight and the lowest one is related to "Kennedy Flexible Response" with a value of 2.429 and an average weight.

In the aftermath of 9/11, the West Asian region faced with sweeping political, economic, and security changes which lead to the formation of a new regional balance of power between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, in such a way that the regional goals of each of these countries brought about a range from traditional forces balance to the threat balance. In this analytical-descriptive study, in order to explain the function of the balance of power approach in competition between three actors from the perspective of regional studies knowledge has been considered by inspecting the regional goals of the actors and considering the trends and stimuli leading to the formation of a security system of balance of power from the viewpoint of domestic and global theorists, the balance of power in the next decade. Then, based on research findings by presenting a conceptual chart, three scenarios (balance of traditional power, balance of threat and interaction) is predicted. The results indicate that in the future, the likelihood of Iran's convergence with Saudi Arabia and the United States is low (the average intensity of regional convergence is 41.8%) and the balance of traditional forces in the region is still the most likely option. The level of tension-seeking of the actors' goals are as the following: Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United States, respectively. Saudi Arabia's susceptibility from the United States has been very high, and it plays a supporting reactor role in US regional policies, and Iran plays a deterrent role. This study is important from theoretical and practical points of view. The data were collected by library method (note taking tools), then the interrelationships between the targets and the actors were analyzed using future research tools such as Mactor software, "Graffer" geometric design software, games theory and "diagonal matrix" pattern.

The policy of the Zionist regime and the countries of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, consistent with US policies, is to counter and prevent the impact of the I.R. of Iran in the region. One of the most important consequences of their convergence and cooperation, especially in the field of defense, is the impact on the security environment of the I.R. of Iran. Regarding the improvements in the Zionist regime's cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, especially in the field of defense, it is necessary to carefully review the I.R. of Iran's defense policies in response to this cooperation. The aim of this study is to formulate the defense policies of the I.R. of Iran regarding the defense cooperation of the target countries. This research is an applied-developmental one which has employed a descriptive-analytical method with a quantitative approach. In order to reach the goal of the research, the views of 50 experts were collected through a questionnaire and then the collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics analysis methods and SPSS software. Finally, 9 cases of defense policies were identified based on the abilities and capabilities of the I.R. of Iran and their impact was determined by the Likert scale. Also, the obtained policies were prioritized based on the degree of effectiveness which the policies of "Development of long-range power, self-reliance and self-sufficiency in the production of advanced defense equipment with an effective preventing capability, increasing the depth of strategic defense beyond the country's geographical borders, supporting the resistance front and strengthening the theory of resistance among Muslim countries in the region" were ranked from first to third, respectively.