نشریه مدیریت بحران
سال نهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 18، پاییز و زمستان 1399)

Today, every country is trying to take measures to maximize national power and authority to establish security andmaximize its defense capabilities. The Islamic Republic of Iran is no exception to this rule and is trying to increaseits national capabilities, national power and defense authority in space. It will increase deterrence, reduce vulnerability,continue necessary activities, promote national sustainability, and facilitate crisis management in the face of militarythreats and actions. For this purpose, the present study has been written with the aim of presenting the model of optimizingthe security defense authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran with a passive defense approach. To extract theinitial components, two methods were used to study the extensive libraries and the Delphi technique using 14 academicexperts and strategic designers, and the selection of experts was done by sampling snowballs. Kendall’s coordinationcoefficient was 0.86, indicating a very strong view of the meeting between experts. The LISREL software was used toevaluate the components. Based on the results of the research, 38 components were identified as factors affecting theoptimization of the security defense authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran with a passive defense approach.

As the water distribution network as a last resort in the urban water cycle is directly related to the subscribers,the changes in the quality and quantity of drinking water may have adverse human, socio-economicand physical consequences in the shortest time after the crisis. One of the most important measures to reduce thenegative consequences of the occurrence of human-made threats, natural events and inherent accidents in urbanwater networks is to have a plan that is in accordance with the principles of non-operational defense. In this regard,the present study was designed to provide urban water network design model in order to provide sustainabilityagainst potential crises. In this paper, four models (serial, branch, ring and composite) are presented for networkdesign. By identifying 11 models of urbanization and their adaptation to water network models, six models(radial, circular, spider, network, satellite, and galactic) To design the optimal water network. Considering seveninertial defenses (diminishing, networking, consolidating, storing, balancing, dispersing and replacing), selectedurban models are designed to design a water grid around the four main axes (reducing the probability of occurrenceof threats, decreasing the vulnerability, reducing the speed to Normal conditions and ease of managementof emergencies (which include a total of 168 different modes) were evaluated. According to the results, the theoreticalframework of the model was formulated and its main axes were determined. In the following, identifying34 characteristics for the proposed model, 14 patterns of innovation were introduced, in the end, by designing thepublic view, the urban water network design pattern was developed to provide sustainable water supply againstthreats and with a neighborhood-oriented approach.

One of the most important issues in the cities is the crisis management and resilience of the cities against theHuman-made crises such as war and terror. Transportation network as the vital artery of the city plays a vibrantrole in reducing vulnerability and facilitating crisis management in the city, such as proper access to residential tissues,emergency evacuation of neighborhoods, access to vital emergency relief centers and military centers. Hence, It seemsnecessary for cities to design a secure urban network includes a set of interconnected passages that have low vulnerabilityto crisis, while also linking residential blocks, relief and rescue centers, military and Law Enforcement Centersand the bases of the entrance and exit of urban areas uninterrupted. The above mentioned network will maintain itsaccountability after the crisis, and relief and military efforts will not be disrupted by this, As a result, city preparednessfor attacks and riots will increase. This research was conducted with the aim of defining the Secure network ofurban roads and describing its features and methods of designing it in urban textures as well as operating it in the District12 of Tehran. To design the safe network of the District 12, firstly, the existing status passages based on 9 indicators includingconfinement, access to relief centers, access to green spaces and open spaces, access to military and law enforcementcenter, passage widths, traffic conditions, Class height, building quality, and types of landuse by IHWP method and GISsoftware techniques were analyzed from the perspective of crisis vulnerability. In the next step, passages with low vulnerabilityand appropriate access to critical crisis management menus were selected as the main constituents of the securenetwork and by doing some actions, the network structure and its interconnection were also provided. In the end, with theaim of maintaining the safety and resilience of the network in the long run, some rules were developed that would only beenforceable on safe network passages.

Buried pipes are the most important components of vital arteries used to distribute water, gas, oil, etc. Theexperiences of past wars support the view that the invading country is devoting its attention to the bombingand destruction of vital centers. Gas transmission pipelines as one of the most important transmission arteriesduring wartime in the event of damage can cause serious financial and environmental damage. In this paper, themethod of reinforcing the pipe with FRP composite has been investigated. For this purpose, while preparing athree-dimensional model of soil-pipe-composite system, to study the effect of factors affecting tube behaviorincluding composite material, composite thickness on tube deformation capacity according to the ALA regulationwas investigated. The soil is modeled using Solid and CFRP 3D elements and a Shell element pipe and is excludedfrom the pipe separation and CFRP. For parametric studies, analyzes were performed using finite elementmethod using ABAQUS 6.10.1 software. Studies for 4, 12 inches with a depth of 1 m, the cost of explosion 15, 30,45 kg, carbon composite and glass, angle of twisting 0, 30, 60, 90 degrees composite around the tube, compositethickness 2, 4, 6 and 8 Mm was done. The results show that the use of carbon composite with the desired thicknessand angle of twisting has a good effect in order to reinforce the pipe against the threats.

Today, more than 60% of the world’s energy resources are oil and gas. Transportation of crude oil, gas andits products is done in different ways, of which the largest share of transmission is borne by transmissionpipes. Gas transmission projects have always been one of the most environmentally hazardous projects,which necessitates project risk assessment and mitigation as one of the important requirements of the projectteam. In this study, the environmental risks of the gas transmission project in Guilan province have beenstudied. By dividing the project into different activities, it tries to minimize the problem and also identifiesthe project risks through the Delphi method, and then the project risks were assessed and ranked in terms ofrisk using FMEA method. AHP method has also been used to monitor FMEA. The project is divided into 15activities involving 29 risks. Analysis and the results of these two methods have shown that the risks related todrilling and piping activities, destruction of agricultural lands and riverbeds, noise pollution, pollution causedby heavy vehicle traffic, as well as pressure reduction activities at the station are among the priority risks ofthe project. The results of the RPN values obtained from the risks show that 28% of the risks have higher thanaverage RPNs which are within the risk range. Finally, methods for identifying and controlling of the high riskactivities have been presented to reduce the environmental risk of the project. The results also indicate that implementationof these methods can reduce up to 90% of the environmental risks associated with the high risks.

The main reason for designing a temporary residence complex is the lack of a proper place for temporary settlingof Mosul refugees. The poor condition of Mosulians, who were forced to leave their homeland after their city wasoccupied and destructed by ISIL, and their willingness to return and rebuild their houses, motivated this study tobegin. The location of this complex is next to banks of the Tigris River. Since this study might be considered as anarchitectural design project close to urban planning and post disaster reconstruction subjects, explaining researchmethodology is not a main concern as it is common in researching projects, but an attempt has been made to use“User Centered Design” method (UCD) on two issues; the “context of using this plan” as well as “user needs”.According to this, some factors related to locating the site such as buffer distances, necessary requirements andfeatures of urban texture and indigenous architecture, equipments needed to set up this temporary settlement aswell as standard minimum spaces for necessary uses were clarified as the context requirements of this plan, whilereviewing the literature related to emergency and temporary settlements and previous disaster experiences of camp < br />accommodation lead to the main requirements and needs of users. This infrastructure will have two different areas:the first, named “Urgent Humanitarian Aid”, is thought for receiving and caring the newly arrived returnees, andthe second one called “City Reintegration Zone”, aims to reintegrate refugees into society after years of uprootingand will seek to secure a future for families, once they meet their most urgent basic needs in the first area.

As the city grows and expands and urbanization, cities are facing new dimensions of threats and a high volume of damagedue to the concentration of population and wealth. Therefore, the vulnerability assessment of cities to environmentalhazards and developing appropriate strategies to reduce losses is inevitable. The city of Ardebil, due to its strategicand border position in the northwest of Iran, has always been considered as one of the areas threatened by the enemy. But itis more vulnerable to other urban points due to problems and failures of physical, social and economic problems. Thus, themain purpose of the present study is to assess the vulnerability of the decayed urban fabric of the city of Ardabil from thepoint of passive defense. This study is applied and the general approach is descriptive-analytical and data and informationis mainly collected through field methods (interview and observation). In the present study, based on the specific conditionsof the decayed urban fabric of Ardebil city, as well as previous research studies, 10 indexes have been defined to assessthe vulnerability, and sub-indexes have been considered for each index. In the next step, using the expert’s opinions, eachcriterion and indicators are weighted and prioritized using AHP method in Expert Choice software and finally using GISmaps the vulnerability maps of the decayed urban fabric of the city of Ardabil is provided. The results shows that %47.83 ofthe fragments located in the decayed urban fabric area had a high vulnerability, %33.71 moderate vulnerability and %18.46had low vulnerability.

In this research, field studies have been used in the field of statistical modeling and building information modeling. Grouping, the study of surplus indicators from 64 primary indicators was performed through a factor analysis model based on the principal component analysis (PCA). The extracted components were grouped in the form of 6 phases and 46 sub-criteria. Then using the Delphi model, the resilience capacity of each resilience index of the construction industry was investigated. The results showed that in all six phases defined in the comprehensive resilience model, the absorption capacity has a high participation rate. On the other hand, the matching capacity in the end-of-life management phase, the maintenance phase, the operational phase in the time and phase of the initial studies, and the In particular, the restoration capacity according to the results in all phases, except for the phase of the initial studies, shows an acceptable percentage of participation. In the sequel, one of the most important goals of the research, namely the operation of the resilience indicators or the key factors of success, is to be prioritized. One The most powerful key factors of success in resilience, information modeling Building (BIM) was investigated. According to the study of studies in new structures, the construction of the phase of the phase, except for the operational phase (operation section), due to the type of indicators in this phase, BIM is a suitable process for improving performance. Regarding existing structures, the management phase of the construction, the structural part, the construction phase, the architectural part, the maintenance phase, and the management phase of the end of the project life are good, and in the remaining phase of the existing structures, the role of the BIM is dimmer.