فصلنامه مطالعات جغرافیایی مناطق خشک
پیاپی 42 (زمستان 1399)

Villages, as the productive heart of agricultural-based communities, are living ecosystems that suffer a lot of damage in times of drought crisis. It is important to pay attention to the strategies of capacity building of local communities (residents of rural areas) in the face of crisis and improve their capacity in restoring their conditions (resilient strategies) to drought and the resulting agricultural recession. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting the development of resilience of villagers to climate change (especially to drought) in the west of Lake Urmia using a structural-interpretive model. The statistical population or research Participants of this study consists of local elites, leading farmers and other people living in the studied rural areas who were somehow local informants (they were 30 Participants). Data collection was performed to investigate the factors affecting resilience development in both documentary and survey form (interview). At first, we used an interview as the research tool in the first step to o collect effective variables and then cross-sectional questionnaire was used to investigate the interaction of variables in the structural analysis. The obtained data are analyzed in the MICMAC software. The results of the research and the distribution of the extracted variables on the desired matrix showed that the system is unstable. Also, based on the results of direct and indirect effectiveness, 20 variables were selected as key factors, of which 12 factors were related to economic criteria, 3 to social and 3 to technical criteria, that have a greatest effectiveness on the development of resilience to climate change (drought) of villagers in west of Urmia Lake.

More than 20 million people now lives in the country, most of them do not have access to minimum health and education services to meet their needs. Even in places where such services exist, the level of service provision is so low that it cannot be said that their access needs are met. At the level of villages in Tabriz, lack of access to educational and health services has caused people problems and, while prolonging travel and increasing their time, has increased the cost of individuals.

This research is designed to answer this question, using descriptive-analytical methods, based on secondary data analysis. Required information was extracted based on library studies and statistical publications of the Statistical Center of Iran, then statistical analysis has been performed.

that based on this, after creating a spatial database of therapeutic and educational spaces in ArcGIS software and using estimation models Access, status of access indicators of rural districts in Central Part of Tabriz County was determined for each service. Then the Lorenz curve was used to show the distribution of services in the villages.

The innovation of this paper is in the spatial analysis of access to services in the villages and the computation time of their travel time. so far, this study has been done mostly in cities and there is no research in the villages of Iran.

The result of this analysis is the lack of consistency between the distribution of population and the distribution of educational and health services. In other words, the central and large villages have better access to the periphery, but because of lack of adequate services, they have poor coverage.

Researchers often examine hydro-climatological processes via Global Circulation Model (GCM) and hydrological model, which have been shown to benefit water resources management and prediction, especially at the basin scale. Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world(Ercan et al., 2020:53; Aryal et al., 2018:1). As per the IPCC report, the global temperature may increase by 1 °C to 5 °C by the end of the century (Bajracharya et al., 2018). Climate scenarios for both Global climate model (GCM) or simple analog models are often adapted to examine the effect of climate change on hydrology (Fereidoon and Koch, 2018). Hydrological models or rainfall-runoff models are essential for understanding the hydrological processes of river basins and supporting operational management of water resources characterized with large spatial and temporal variability (Tuo et al., 2016). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for a future projection of changes in the hydrological regime of the basin based on Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP) (Bajracharya et al., 2018).

The minab basin is one of the main sources of water supply to the Bandar Abbas. Minab basin is located in the east of  Hormozgan and north of Minab. The basin area is 10605 square kilometers.The basin has a hot desert climate, according to the extended demartern classification system.In this study, daily meteorological data from 1985 to 2018 including maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity of 8 selected stations in the study area were obtained from the National Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) and discharge data 3 hydrometric stations Brentin Minab located at the exit the basin was prepared as a base station from 1985 to 2018 by the Ministry of Energy. Spatial data includes digital elevation model (DEM) data, runoff  network information, soil type, and landuse. In this study, 6 different climate models have been used under RCP2.6, RCP4.5   and RCP8.5  scenarios, including GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC-ESM, NorESM1-ME and CanESM2. The Minab basin simulation uses the SWAT model, which is a distributed and physical hydrological model that is often used to evaluate management decisions and climate change on hydrological processes. The main inputs of the SWAT model include the information layers of the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the soil layer and the land use layer, and the input microclimate variables of the SWAT model include daily precipitation, maximum temperature ,minimum temperature and discharge. The parameters of sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation with SWAT- tool and using SUFI2 program as one of the algorithms in SWAT-CUP software were determined and their sensitivity and uncertainty were estimated using this program. Statistical indicators have been considered for evaluating rainfall, temperature and discharge outputs.

Results and evaluations of 6 climatic models and in all three scenarios, RCP2.6 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to predict the future temperature and precipitation of Minab basin, it is stated that in all models and climatic scenarios, the temperature of Minab basin is constantly increasing until 2099, and the rate of increase in the minimum temperature will occur more than the increase in the maximum temperature in the future; about precipitation, the predictions are complex and uncertain, but in most models, the predicted amount of precipitation will be less than the observed value.The results of the influence of different climatic scenarios on the parameters of the Minab River regime indicate that is calculated the average of discharg under RCP2.6 scenario is equal to 5.2 cubic meters per second and in RCP4.5 scenario is equal to 5.08 and finally in RCP8.5 scenario is equal to 5.07 cubic meters. Therefore, it is inferred that discharge will have a decreasing trend compared to its observation period in the next period, and in the scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, will be followed by 39.1%, 40.3% and 40.4% of the discharge drop. Due to the future runoff values ​​of the basin, it seems that the Minab River will be affected by climate change and its discharge will drop by about 40%.

The evaluation results of climate models under RCP scenarios show that the maximum and minimum temperatures will continue to increase continuously in all climate models in the future, but the increase in the minimum temperature is greater than the increase in the maximum temperature. In the case of precipitation, complexity is high and uncertainty is expressed, but in all three scenarios, a decrease in future rainfall is indicated. The SWAT model is a hydrological model used to estimate the future discharge of the basin. The results of the numerical index of performance evaluation of the model under RCP climatic scenarios in simulating the runoff of Minab basin in the hydrometric station of Brentin Minab indicate the appropriate efficiency of the model in simulating runoff of Minab basin. The results of the studies show that the average future runoff of the basin has a decreasing trend, which will have a decrease of 39.1, 40.3 and 40.4%, respectively, compared to its observation period. Therefore, under all RCP scenarios, the average discharge of the basin will decrease in the future, and the probability of frequent droughts occurring with a longer duration than the observation period is expected.

Courtyard, as a domestic pattern and a passive cooling system, affects thermal comfort of traditional courtyard houses in hot- dry and hot- humid regions. The aim of this research is to investigate the climate compatibility of courtyards of traditional houses based on shading and sunlit use in hot-dry climate of Yazd city; for this purpose, ten traditional courtyard houses were selected and modeled by Ecotect Analysis software. Afterwards, the average amount of shading and received sunlit by surrounding surfaces of the courtyards were calculated for all months of the year and the amount of shading-sunlit index was extracted for hot, cold and annual periods and therefore the degree of climate compatibility of the courtyards and the relationship between the geometric proportions of surrounding surfaces and shading-sunlit index were investigated. The results show that the annual average of the shading-sunlit index of the walls, floor and all surfaces of studied courtyards are 56%, 44% and 51%, respectively. Accordingly the walls, floor and the whole surfaces of the studied courtyards have an average amount of compatibility with the climate of Yazd city. The correlation between aspect ratios and the deviation angle of the courtyards and the shading-sunlit index, shows that by increasing the ratios of L/W and H/W and decreasing the deviation angle, the amount of walls shading-sunlit index decreases, an on the contrary, the amount of the courtyard floor index and the whole surfaces index increase. Furthermore, as the ratio of H/L increases and the deviation angle decreases, the amount of shading-sunlit index of the walls and the whole surfaces decrease and the courtyard floor index increases.

Affected by the processes of globalization and competitiveness, and with the evolution of urban development theories, new frameworks and approaches have been created in urban planning. With the emergence of urban branding, a new form of urban development plans is being created with a top-down approach and based on the qualitative components of urban development. Hence, the present paper elucidates the theoretical framework of urban development components effective in the urban branding programs, with a mixed research method, and creates the structural equation model of the research with an exploratory research project. For this purpose, 10 criteria, 28 subcriteria, and 69 metrics were subjected to evaluation and information collection. The studied area was the city of Birjand in Iran. The statistical population of the study in the interviews section, which included 19 urban experts and managers, was chosen using purposeful sampling and the snowball technique. On the other hand, using simple random sampling, 383 citizens, 381 tourists, and 30 people of the authorities and investors were surveyed in the quantitative section. Furthermore, the findings of the interviews revealed that the efforts towards attracting the mental and executive participation of the residents of old textures, empowering the residents, managing the presence of Afghan immigrants, and, at the same time, exploiting cultural and historical capacities evolved could help with the realization of an urban brand. The modeling result also showed in the urban development plans of Birjand, by influencing intermediate variables the components of revitalization, personalization, and economic feasibility have the greatest positive effects on the realization of urban branding and According to the correlation between components, the highest relationship was between mental image and environmental quality (0.68).

Flood is one of the natural disasters that causes various property and life damages worldwide every year. The main purpose of the present study was to identify the sub-basins with the most potential for flooding and to prioritize them for flood control measures in Kakareza watershed in Lorestan province, and to determine the most effective factors in flood generation using Shannon and TOPSIS entropy techniques, and also watershed morphometric analysis in the framework of GIS. For this purpose, in this study, 15 effective parameters including precipitation, daily maximum precipitation, curve number, drainage density, slope, stream frequency, stream retention constant, drainage texture, relief number, circularity coefficient, compaction coefficient, relief ratio, form factor, elongation coefficient was used. Shannon entropy method was used to determine the weight of the parameters. The results of the parameters weighting showed that Annual average precipitation factor, maximum daily precipitation, curve number, and compression coefficient had the highest effect on flooding of Kakareza watershed. While the lowest weights were related to the Concentration time, form factor, drainage texture and roughness ratio parameters. Moreover, the TOPSIS decision making method was used to prioritize 23 sub-basins of Kakareza watershed. The results showed that sub-basin O in the first rank (0.91), sub-basin M (0.89) in the second and sub-basin Q (0.85) in the third rank had the highest flood potential. So, these sub-basins have the highest priority for conservation measures, while sub-basins B and W had the least flood potential.