نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 45 (بهار 1400)

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of monetary system survival (as an indicator for monetary policy stability) and inflationary environment on exchange rate pass-through (as measure of transitional effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the import price index) in 9 developing countries during 1999-2019. To this purpose, the inflationary environment index is estimated by Markov-switching model and its effect on monetary policy stability is estimated by Survival Model Approach. Then, the risk of monetary system failure is estimated by WEIBULL method and in the following, the effect of this variable with other explanatory variables is estimated by ARDL method on exchange rate pass-through. The results show the negative effect of the inflationary environment on the monetary system survival. Also, the monetary system survival, the inflationary environment, the nominal effective exchange rate and its instability will increase the exchange rate pass-through.

Real exchange rate misalignment from its equilibrium level can have negative effect on economies worldwide, especially on developing countries. For this reason, it is important to economic policymakers to make attempts in order to control for any misalignment. As detection of the real exchange rate is a first step to control for its misalignments, this study has explored the effects of the main determinants on real exchange rate within a framework of a non-linear model using data of 120 developing countries over the period 2000-2019. The model, which was specified as a panel smooth transition regression, contained a set of explanatory variables such as productivity index, the ratio of investment to GDP, the ratio of government spending to GDP, trade openness, term of trade and net foreign assets. The empirical results indicated that changes in all aforementioned explanatory variables affected significantly the countries` exchange rates. In addition, the results revealed that existence of various types of exchange rate misalignments, like over/under- valuation of exchange rate, in most countries during the period, even those the intensity of misalignments were different in the countries under consideration. Among them, Iran experienced the vast fluctuations in the real exchange rate by 2002, while the less deviation from the equilibrium rate happened in the rest of the period. The reason for such misalignment has been typically based on the overvaluation and undervaluation of the domestic currency.

Government budget is an important policy-making tool to achieve allocation, distribution and stabilization goals that affect the economic performance of society through variables of government expenditures and revenues; accordingly, determining the optimal level of budget components is always important for the policy-making system. Therefore, the purpose of the current study is to assess the optimal level of government budget components for the period of the Sixth Economic, Social and Cultural Development Plan. To do so, the random optimal control approach was used in which the control amounts include tax revenues, government's consumption expenditures, government's acquisition of non-financial assets and liquidity. The result of this study shows optimal tax revenues, non-tax revenues, government's current payments, and government's acquisition of non-financial assets is less than the sixth plan amount and secondly, the largest gap between the optimal amounts and the amount of the Sixth Plan is related to government's acquisition of non-financial assets.

In present study, Iranian trade network has been analyzed in the world trade network using a complex network approach and the role of trade agreements in ECO, D8 and Organization of Islamic Cooperation. To achieve this purpose, the data of 150 countries during 2010-2019 has been investigated through complex network approach and Louvain Community Detection Algorithm. This lead to recognize trade communities and situation of Iran among some selected business communities using indices of centrality, clustering and density. In order to study the role of regional trade agreements, business communities were compared with the network of trade agreements through the use of Information theory criterion. The results showed that Iran has been in Asia-Africa trade community during the years. The findings related to density and clustering index demonstrated the improvement in multilateral trade relations between the countries. However, the centrality indices indicated the decline in Iran's position in 2019 compared to 2010 in the mentioned trade community. The criterion of Information Theory revealed that trade agreements have not played important role in countries’ decisions related to trade so that this role has been decreased within this period in the global trade network. Consequently, the importance of transregional countries in domestic trade is very vital.

The growth of foreign direct investment through covering the gap between saving-investment, the transfer of advanced technologies, the transfer of technical knowledge, and the transfer of managerial skills and new production methods can increase the economic growth in developing countries. In this regard, the present study attempts to investigate the interactive effect of the risk and economic complexity on foreign direct investment attraction in selected countries of the organization of Islamic cooperation (OIC) from 2003 to 2018. For this purpose, the research model was estimated using panel data and the GMM in two modes. In the first case, the individual effects of the indicators of political risk, economic risk, financial risk (as a proxy index of institution), and economic complexity on attracting foreign direct investment were investigated. In other case, the interactive effect of political, economic, and financial risk with economic complexity on foreign direct investment was investigated. The results show that the individual effect of political, economic and financial risks on ‌foreign direct investment is negative, and the effect of economic complexity is positive. However, the interactive effect of triple risks and economic complexity on attracting foreign direct investment is negative and significant. In other words, the increase in triple risks through the reduction of economic complexity has a negative effect on attracting foreign direct investment. This finding has important lessons for selected countries, including Iran, that reducing national risk and, consequently, increasing economic complexity, can increase the attraction of foreign direct investment.

The purpose of this research is: What are the effects of modification of natural gas prices for domestic consumers on macroeconomic variables and Carbon emission? The dynamic computable general equilibrium models have been, used. In this study, to investigate the effects of modifying the price of natural gas. The first scenario, an effect of 10% increase and in the second scenario, an effect of 30% increase in natural gas prices is seen. To emphasize the reliability of the model, systematic sensitivity analysis based on parameter change, the Armington Elasticity, is done. The results indicate the efficiency of the estimated model. The results also show a relatively low impact of natural gas prices on inflation, as well as stabilization of carbon emissions in the future. This price increase will lead to a good growth in the process of improving the welfare index up to the horizon of 2030. In general, modifying of the price of natural gas has positive effects on welfare. Overall, the modification of natural gas prices has positive welfare effects The important point of the policy, which is based on considering the scenarios and the problem of stagflation, correction of the natural gas prices should be done gradually and with a specific schedule.