Journal of Money & Economy
Volume:16 Issue: 3, Summer 2021

Economic growth is the most common goal in any economy, and capital is one of the most important determinants of growth. In the last few decades, the use of securities in various countries' capital markets has expanded and has become an essential part of the economic system supplying the capital need for investors and other institutions. This study aims to analyze the effect of securities used to finance banks (securitization) on economic growth. For this purpose, the theoretical analysis method is used in the framework of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. The theoretical model used is based on Frank Ramsey's (1928) economic growth model. To transform this model into a suitable model for research, the shadow banking system and securitization have been added. The model is then simulated using the calibration method and using the real data of the US economy; then, the macroeconomic changes and fluctuations created by bank securities are explained and analyzed. According to the research findings, issuing securities by banks will lead to slower economic growth. Therefore, it is recommended to avoid the use of securitization in banking.

Theories on the relationship between money and inflation had largely been shaped around the positive relationship and money causality for inflation before the Post-Keynesians. Since the 1980s, this idea emerged that there might be no correlation between money growth and inflation. In the case of existence, the causality is reversed, so money is endogenous somehow. However, practically there is a suspicion that the causality between money growth and inflation is not fixed and linear. According to the experience of Turkey in the last seven decades, which has experienced fluctuated inflation rates, it is supposed that the causal relationship between Broad Money Growth (BMG) and inflation is not constant. This paper examines this idea over 1961–2019 using a Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive model (MS-VAR), which allows for regime shifts. Findings show that the causal relationship between BMG and inflation has not been constant, and different regimes have generated different causality orientations. There was a one-way causality from inflation to BMG during 1971–2001 that inflation rates were high. Whereas, during 1961–70 and 2002–19, when the Turkish economy experienced milder inflation rates, there was a one-way causal relationship from BMG to inflation.

As a mechanism to enhance financial system stability and a process that allows banks to change their role from traditional lenders to originators and distributors of loans, securitization reduces the dependence on customer deposits. Also, it expands lending capacity, manages banks credit risk, and transforms illiquid assets into saleable securities. In this research, GMM method in three formats is used for the 16 selected Iranian banks. Results show that real sector growth positively and significantly increase financial stability in the Iranian economy. This is because of the economic scale augmentation and its impact on creating new financial resources. Meanwhile, the non-performing loans ratio significantly diminishes banking stability as well as it lowers banks' capacity to generate revenues from intermediary activities. Moreover, return is affected by the inflationary conditions which heightens revenue making and equity factors in banks' balance sheets. In order to generate higher revenues and gain upper profits, banking resources are occasionally withdrawn to enter other financial markets. Loans to deposits ratio, representing the credit risk in banking systems, denotes that higher risk in credit areas exacerbates financial stability due to the higher probability of risk appetite in generating loans to the general public. Also, security size highlights that although it is expected that securitization augments the financial stability in the banking system, other indicators would also be influential on financial stability. In other words, the higher the security size, the bigger its impact on banking stability. Furthermore, Lending capacity augments as a result of risk management and transforming illiquid assets into saleable securities.

Despite the importance of the business model in implementing strategy, this issue is less addressed than strategy. This important issue regarding banks' business model has received less attention, and research in Iran and other countries has caused a deprivation of knowledge. In addition to the scientific pathology of the business model in Iranian commercial banks, the present article seeks to determine the weights of importance and prioritization of the main categories. It also prioritizes and determines the importance of each of the concepts of the main categories of the commercial banking business model. The research method is applied in terms of results and descriptive in terms of purpose and quantitative-qualitative from the data dimension. The research method's strategy in the qualitative part is the grounded theory, and in the quantitative part is the process of hierarchical analysis. The data analysis method in the qualitative part is the coding method, and the quantitative part is based on pairwise comparisons and incompatibility rate analysis. The research community is the experts of commercial banks, and its examples are Mellat, Tejarat, Melli, Sepah, Saderat, Shahr, Eghtesad-e-Novin, and Ayandeh banks. The sampling method is a purposeful judgment with the snowball method and data collection tools in the qualitative part of the interview and review of documents in the quantitative part of the questionnaire. The research findings led to identifying the pathology of Iranian commercial banks' business model in 7 categories and 36 concepts, which are prioritized and contributed based on the importance and role of each of them in the business model.

Although gold is no longer a central cornerstone of the international monetary and financial system, it still attracts considerable attention from researchers and investors. Nowadays, many investors manage their risk with valuable assets such as gold. This paper examines the dynamic relationships between gold and stock markets in the Tehran Stock Exchange. We have applied the Markov switching method to study the role of gold as a hedge or safe haven for the Tehran Stock Exchange risk from 1998 to 2018. The high dependence and low dependence regimes used in the Markov switching model are based on empirical results that show two regimes for all markets under investigation: a low volatility regime and a high volatility regime. The study's findings show that gold can act as a strong hedge and cannot act as a safe haven for risk of The Tehran stock exchange.

Stock Exchange Investors have paid more attention to the banking group in recent years so that in many cases, the direction of the banking index has changed the general direction of the market. Therefore, exploring the banking index fluctuation is important from the point of view of investors as well as the direction of the market. The purpose is to examine the effectiveness and direction of news, as one of the most important factors in the formation of volatility, on the banking group index in Tehran Stock Exchange by using 1460 daily records during 2018-2019 and the GARCH family's method. The data were collected for four different newsgroups, including economic, political, psychological, and financial. After that, the news that had more relationship with the banking group was separated to underscore in the weighting stage and divided into the positive and negative news, according to the perspectives of capital market experts and economic elites. The results indicated that newsgroups have a significant effect on the group index, and only the negative political model on the banking group has an asymmetric effect. The results indicated that political and economic news has a positive and significant impact on banking index fluctuations.