فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی
پیاپی 72 (بهار 1401)

The characteristics of crude oil and the factors affecting the price of this energy carrier have caused its price forecast to always be considered by researchers, oil market activists, governments and policy makers. Since the price of crude oil is affected by many factors, therefore, continuous studies should be done in this way so that the estimates made over time, the results are more accurate and more reliable. In this paper, a combination of nonlinear grey model and Arima is used to forecast the price of crude oil and a combined nonlinear grey-Arima model is proposed. Brent crude oil price data for seasonal, monthly and weekly periods have been used to investigate this technique. In the quarterly forecast of data for the first quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2021, in the monthly forecast of data for January 2020 to December 2021 and in the weekly forecast of data for the second quarter of March 2020 until the first week of December 2021 has been used. The results showed that the mean absolute value of the error percentage and the square root of the mean square error in the hybrid model are always lower than the single theory-based model or the nonlinear grey single theory. Also, the hybrid model has a higher ability to explain and cover price fluctuations in different time periods and is more reliable than the single model. Therefore, a hybrid model can be used instead of single and single theory-based models for more accurate forecasting.

Energy intensity in the Iranian economy has always been on the rise. In this study, the only factor affecting energy intensity is the uncertainty in economic policies. It is important to determine a comprehensive measure of economic uncertainty that reflects the overall level of uncertainty in the economy. To build the index of uncertainty in economic policies, uncertainty in foreign exchange, monetary and fiscal policies has been used using the EGARGH approach. Then, the effect of uncertainty in economic policies on energy intensity has been estimated with the self-explanatory model with distributive intervals (ARDL) model during 1973-2018. The findings show that one percent increases in the index of economic uncertainty in current period, second year, and third year have positive and significant effects on energy intensity. The magnitudes of such effects are equal to 0.12, 0.11 and 0.06 percent, respectively. These results show that uncertainty in economic policies increases energy intensity. If uncertainty in economic policies goes up, firms cannot plan to manage energy consumption properly because their production plans will be risky in the medium- and long-term. The results showed that uncertainty in economic policies has a direct positive and significant positive effect on energy intensity in the short and long term. On the other hand, the indirect effects of economic policy uncertainty through the rate of inflation, budget deficit and economic growth on the intensity of energy consumption are negative, and these negative effects are intensified despite the uncertainty in economic policies.Therefore, reducing the intensity of energy consumption is possible by controlling inflation, budget deficit and strengthening economic growth. Because the impact of these variables on energy intensity is greater than the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on energy intensity.

Resources are the foundation of economic growth. With speedy economic and population growth, economic growth is facing a scarcity of resources worldwide. Resource-economy co-ordination has become every government’s main focus in reaching strategic development goals in countries that are on the path of rapid economic development. Sustainable economic development in a country requires resources and secure environment. Nowadays economic growth is facing serious limitations in resources and environment, which is an unavoidable stage in the process of industrialization. The purpose of this study is to inspect the effect of oil dependence and institutional quality on economic growth with the Panel VAR approach. In this regard, 14 developed countries and 10 developing countries between the years 1995-2019have been selected. The results of the research with reaction functions tells us that the shock from the institutional quality index economic growth in developing countries is negative in the primary stages and turns positive later on, but in developed countries is positive throughout the period. Moreover, the shock of renting crude oil in developing countries affects economic growth positively at first and when reaching its final stages this trend becomes negative. Also, the shock of renting crude oil has only a positive effect in the first periods and other periods have a negative effect. In the end the oil share shock is positive at first and later on has a negative effect on economic growth, but in developed countries has positive affect at first and later on of the period, but has a negative affect on economic growth in the middle.

Due to its huge oil and gas reserves and access to open waters, Iran has considered the development of petrochemical products, including methanol, in the last decade; In such a way that the nominal production capacity of methanol in the country is about 9 million tons per year; According to investment plans in this industry until 1408, this number will arrive to 26 million tons yearly. due to the attractive economic market of these products inside and outside of Iran, almost no significant investment has been considered to increase this capacity. High production capacity of methanol in the country and the development of domestic markets for products with propylene and ethylene base materials, provided new opportunities to create units for the conversion of methanol to olefins (propylene and ethylene) in the country. Therefore, in this paper, using the method of economic feasibility, we will examine the establishment of these units in the country. The results of the feasibility study of these units, show that they are profitable for the country in the ten-year perspective. It is one of the most important opportunities to exit the sale of raw materials in the methanol sector of the country.

Competion laws follow varions goals including economic targets such as increase of economic efficiency and consumers' welfare. This branch of law has resisted against agreements and contracts which endanger the consumers' or public welfare and has tried to prevent such contracts and processes. European Union is among the greatest consumers and importer of energy in the world. The most part of the gas consumed in EU is provided from outside and therefore the outlook of supply and transport of energy to the critical paths of lits industrial and economic sectors has become a major concern in EU. On the other hand, through imposing competition laws, EU is pursuing to develop a fair competitive structure among economic actors and production institution and by controlling anti-competion behaviour has prevented the formation of cartels and monopoles, and thus avoided damage to the public interests. One of the most important sectors which witnessed many disputes is the sale of gas to EU through long term contracts. Sometimes, conditions are inserted in the contracts which contrablicts competition laws in EU. Europe is willing to organize a common uniform energy market inside EU to support the consummers' rights and assurance of supply of the needed energy.In this paper, we are going to identify the EU envisaged anti-competition conditions through analysis of EU's long term gas sale contracts. Furthermore we will explore the impact of EU's regulations on the insertion of such conditions in the contracts.The subjects that will be covered are: Destination Cluse, Oil Price Indexation, Take or Pay and Resale Restrictions. It is very important to note that application of anti- trust laws is time specific and thus undergo countinuos change. A legal action today might be an anti competition activity tomorrow.

The purpose of this research is Identifying and Prioritizing Sustainable Outsourcing Risk with Fuzzy Type II Data in National Company for Southern Oilfields. This research was a Mix methodology and used qualitative and quantitative analytical processes to collect and analyze data. In the qualitative part, meta-analysis was first used to identify its components and themes to assess the risk of sustainable outsourcing. Based on Delphi analysis, an attempt was made to confirm the theoretical consensus on the components and themes of sustainable outsourcing risk assessment. In the quantitative part, based on fuzzy logic, type-2 fuzzy data analysis and FAHP algorithm were used. The target population in this study was academic experts as panel members in the quality department and managers of organizational levels of the National Company for Southern Oilfields in the quantitative department. The results in the qualitative part indicated the existence of 3 main components and 22 themes of sustainable outsourcing risk assessment. Also in the quantitative part of the results showed that the economic risk of sustainable outsourcing was the most important component and the lack of environmental standards in waste control was identified as the most important assessment theme in the National Company for Southern Oilfields.

The effect of the two legal entities of force majeure and the impossibility (frustration) of the contract is almost similar, and that is the impossibility of fulfilling the obligation or contract. However, these two theories, although are very similar in practice, have some differences that distinguish them from each other; Initially, the question was what is the nature of the two institutions of force majeure and the  frustration of contracts in Iran and what is their position in contracts and the Iranian oil and gas law system and by collecting materials by means of the library method and using analytical research method Descriptively, it was concluded that the two entities, although they have some similarities, cannot be considered as one, and in reciprocal sales contracts in Iran, a contractor who has resorted to coercion to receive his costs must wait by the time of operation from the field. Iran's new oil contracts have also taken the form of reciprocity agreements regarding coercion, with the exception that international sanctions are not an example.

This paper aims to firstly explain the significance of the U.S oil independency and its consequences on the U.S foreign strategy in international politics. Secondly, the implications of this energy policy on the U.S foreign policy in the international system context is examined. The hypothesis to address these inquiries is postulated using neo-realism theory. Accordingly, following oil independency by the U.S government has lowered vulnerability to geopolitical developments in oil-rich regions, particularly Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and has reinforced the hegemony of the U.S in rivalry with rising powers, namely China and Russia. In this direction, imposing economic sanctions against large world oil producers such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela, sparking trade war with China, escalating social conflicts and war in the Middle East, and decide to benefit of further shale oil production are among the most important components of the U.S foreign policy toward oil independency accomplishment. According to the neo-realistic method of analysis, energy resources are important elements of power in international system and proportionally, more energy production will lead to more power and security for states. The results of this study show that the U.S effort to exploit unconventional oil and gas resources through the technological revolution is in the framework of a strategy of self-sufficiency in energy production to maximize its power and security and to reduce geopolitical vulnerabilities in terms of dependence on the energy supply needed to maintain the country's hegemony in the international system. As the U.S energy supply increases, its economic and political dependence on other regions and countries has diminished and the country has been able to reduce its vulnerabilities in designing and advancing hegemonic policies.